Sunflower Showdown

Starting tonight we have a decent list of college games on our board this week. Tonight we like Syracuse against Pitt because Pitt is only playing their second road game under their new coach. We also like a few other teams for the same reason - Oregon State, Stanford, Auburn, Wisconsin, UL-Lafayette.

We've also added several other games. We added Iowa State because the Texas Christian University quarterback got arrested for DWI Wednesday night. Team chemistry is very important in college football because the players are kids and when a teammate gets in trouble they feel it and the chemistry is disrupted and everyone feels the shame. Not a good way to physically or mentally prepare for a football game. We - actually I shouldn't say we because I haven't told Mr. Pig about this one yet but I'm sure he'll agree and the story literally just broke so I snagged it before the line went too far away from us - I took Maryland because 6 Wake Forest players just got suspended for tomorrow's game.

We also like Oklahoma because Texas Tech snapped their significant home winning streak last year as a big underdog. Oklahoma had the nation's longest hoHme winning streak of 39 games when TT stunned them last year.

We are picking against one of the hottest teams by taking NC State this weekend, but sexy Florida State shutout NC State last year, and it was the first time since 2008 that they had been shutout, so we think the Wolfpack will be out for revenge. FSU has been pulverizing teams so its a dangerous pick, but a lot of times the pick that feels wrong is right.

The leader lost a 5500 max bet last night on Arizona, so I'm curious how he will hold up this weekend after a bad start. I predict a new leader when the week is finished because I don't believe in his mental toughness. To be even more bold, I predict he'll be out in 3 weeks.

Index
Syracuse -2 1200 LOSS
Oklahoma -5 1200 WIN
NC State +17 1200 WIN
UL-Lafayette OMITTED
Iowa State +9.5 1200 WIN
Wisconsin -14 1200 WIN
Auburn -9 1200 LOSS
Stanford -9 1200 LOSS
Oregon State -15 1200 LOSS
Maryland -7 1200 LOSS

Arizona at St. Louis

On Thursday night we like St. Louis because Arizona is, astonishingly, 4-0 this season. Most of the people in the pool took Arizona, obviously.

Index
St. Louis +1.5 1350

Week 4 NFL Results and 8% Pace

We went 5-2-1 in the NFL this weekend, including Thursday, and that, I reckon, is a very successful week.  We still have the Dallas-Chicago game tonight, but we are laying off because we don't see any value or an edge either way.  We're currently in 8th place with 27706 and the pool claimed one more victim so far this week, so 10 people are out and 14 have above 20000, which means 34 have somewhere between 1-19999.  The leader is being cautious and remains ahead of the pack with 54051.  I'm curious how he'll react when someone gains some ground or he goes cold.  I'm sure that he has enough to place in the top 10 right now, but there's a lot of football left.  We're a quarter of the way through the NFL regular season.

I mentioned increasing our stack by 8% each week near the start of this contest, so let's take a look at how we compare to that pace.  Here's a chart of 8% increases on 20000:

Start - 20000
End Week 1 = 21,600
End Week 2 = 23,328
End Week 3 = 25,194
End Week 4 = 27,209

And that's where we are at, the end of week 4 (because we're not betting tonight).  We have 27,706, so we're right on that pace, a little ahead even.  At the end of week 17, if we stay on that pace we should have 74,000, which I think is good enough to win, but easier said than done, though.  We have a very long way to go, but we have a plan and we're prepared to take a shot at the king.

Update
1 more eliminated(11 total) and we're in 7th.

Public Perception Gone Crazy

People have been slamming Cam Newton and Mike Vick all week, so we love Carolina and Philly today.  Both teams are coming off bad losses and are playing teams that have been pretty hot - Atlanta and NY Giants.  Cam Newton is having to deny that he is seeing a sports psychologist and people in Philadelphia are questioning if Andy Reid should continue to start Mike Vick - the Eagles are 2-1 - what's all the fuss about?  These are the biggest plays we've had all year.

We also like Tennessee against Houston because Houston has won 3 in a row.  We like San Diego to reverse last week's outcome.  We like Denver to beat the Raiders at home because Oakland has a new coach.  And we like Jacksonville because Cincinnati has won two games in a row and scored over 30 in each win.  Trends are quickly reversed in the NFL.

Index

Denver -7 1220 WIN

San Diego +1 1450 WIN

Jacksonville +1 1220 LOSS

Tennessee +12.5 1220 LOSS

Philly -2 1700 PUSH

Carolina -7 1700 WIN
New Orleans +7.5 1220 WIN