We have one play today that our model spit out. Wyoming's coach got suspended for a post game rant after the Air Force game and he got suspended this week against Boise State, so we love Boise State to smash an emotionally confused Wyoming team.
All the other other plays fall under a different category. We're using a somewhat new system today, which I'll explain later, only if it's successful because if it's not we're not using it again. Here's the action:
Index
Boise State -16.5 4000 WIN
Indiana +2 2500 WIN
Maryland +3 2500 PUSH
Texas A&M -14 2500 WIN
Alabama -23.5 2500 WIN
Arizona +5 WIN
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Friday, October 26, 2012
Keg of Nails
We're on Nevada tonight because Air Force has a big game next week at Army and because we think Nevada is significantly better.
We also like Louisville because Cincinnati suffered their first loss of the season last week. People aeem to think that losing a non-conference game won't affect them that much, but it does. Any team that gets to 5-0 starts dreaming - they have to unless they're a bunch of losers, so when that dream of a perfect season is shattered, and shattered it was, they will likely lose again the next week, or at least not cover the point spread.
Index
Nevada -3.5 2500 LOSS
Louisville -4 2500 LOSS
We also like Louisville because Cincinnati suffered their first loss of the season last week. People aeem to think that losing a non-conference game won't affect them that much, but it does. Any team that gets to 5-0 starts dreaming - they have to unless they're a bunch of losers, so when that dream of a perfect season is shattered, and shattered it was, they will likely lose again the next week, or at least not cover the point spread.
Index
Nevada -3.5 2500 LOSS
Louisville -4 2500 LOSS
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Tuesday Night Football?
As we begin this week, we are in 9th place with 41882 after a backdoor cover on Monday night by Detroit. The leader has 70635, which is remarkable. He has 60% winners and we have 58% winners, but he has made fewer bets than us, so it would seem that he has been winning all his big bets an losing all his small bets. That won't continue. And being in first place has been a very dangerous position so far. He could probably sustain his 60% winners, especially if he is being very selective, but I don't think he can continue to hit the bigs and lose the smalls, he'll even out and when he starts losing more bigs he'll come back down a bit. The 10th spot right behind us has 41438 then there is some separation as 11th has 30000 exactly.
-21 people have 20000 or better.
-18 are eliminated.
-5 have less than 10000
-11 have less than 15000
-37 have less than the starting amount, out of 58 including eliminated
Tonight we have a little Sun Belt Conference action between Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State. A game that would probably be only for degenerate gamblers but we found an edge with a little digging. Ark State beat ULL late last year when the conference title was on the line. ULL is also better and playing at home on a weird night for football.
Index
ULL -3.5 2500 LOSS
-21 people have 20000 or better.
-18 are eliminated.
-5 have less than 10000
-11 have less than 15000
-37 have less than the starting amount, out of 58 including eliminated
Tonight we have a little Sun Belt Conference action between Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State. A game that would probably be only for degenerate gamblers but we found an edge with a little digging. Ark State beat ULL late last year when the conference title was on the line. ULL is also better and playing at home on a weird night for football.
Index
ULL -3.5 2500 LOSS
Monday, October 22, 2012
MNF: Detroit at Chicago
A great matchup of bitter foes on Monday night is going to bring out all the bettors who won a good deal of money, or units, this week with the success of the favorites and bettor-friendly teams. They're going to be on the wrong side tonight though. Chicago is where all the money will be but Detroit will probably take the game outright. Chicago is on a 3 game win streak, have won the last two scoring 30+, and last time they played Matthew Stafford threw 4 interceptions, so most people will be betting the favorite. Mr. Pig and I will be with the Lions - king of the fucking jungle baby RAWR!!!
Index
Detroit +6.5 2700 WIN
Sunday, October 21, 2012
NFL Sunday Week 7
We couldn't get ahead in college football yesterday, for every win there was a loss quickly after. Today we like some home teams. We like the Colts at home because they played very bad last week and Cleveland played very well.
We like Houston because Baltimore has won 4 in a row and they lost their leader in Ray Lewis.
We like Green Bay because QBs that throw 6 TD passes almost always cover the next week and also because underdogs are now undervalued and Green Bay is less than a touchdown favorite against the Rams, who people all of a sudden think are good.
We like Carolina because they're on a losing streak against a Dallas team that is talking about the Super Bowl once again, and that is never good because it creates impossible expectations and that creates pressure.
We like the Giants because Washington swept them last year, they've lost both other division games thus year, RG3 has been getting tons of hype, and they're playing at home.
Index
Houston -6.5 2700 WIN
Green Bay -5.5 2200 WIN
Indianapolis -3 2200 WIN
Carolina +3 2200 LOSS
NY Giants -6 2200 LOSS
We like Houston because Baltimore has won 4 in a row and they lost their leader in Ray Lewis.
We like Green Bay because QBs that throw 6 TD passes almost always cover the next week and also because underdogs are now undervalued and Green Bay is less than a touchdown favorite against the Rams, who people all of a sudden think are good.
We like Carolina because they're on a losing streak against a Dallas team that is talking about the Super Bowl once again, and that is never good because it creates impossible expectations and that creates pressure.
We like the Giants because Washington swept them last year, they've lost both other division games thus year, RG3 has been getting tons of hype, and they're playing at home.
Index
Houston -6.5 2700 WIN
Green Bay -5.5 2200 WIN
Indianapolis -3 2200 WIN
Carolina +3 2200 LOSS
NY Giants -6 2200 LOSS
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