We have a good slate of games today for college football. Our bigger bankroll will have bigger bets. We like Virginia because Wake Forest has been rocked by suspensions for drugs and plenty else. That is very bad for team chemistry. WF issued an open letter to fans of the football team. It's that bad.
We like Oklahoma State because we think they'll be out for revenge. Last year, Iowa State ruined their perfect season late in the year.
South Carolina lost for the first time all year last week to LSU, so we expect a letdown against Florida. We like Kansas State for the same reason against West Virginia. Same for Idaho against LA Tech.
North Carolina has a new coach and still has not covered the point spread in the road this year, so we like Duke.
We added Iowa today because Penn State has been playing really well this season despite all the off-season distractions. We expect that to start catching up with them.
We are also considering Texas, but haven't put that in yet.
Index
Virginia -3.5 2200 LOSS
OK State -14 2200 WIN
Florida -3 2200 WIN
Kansas State +3 2200 WIN
Duke +11 2200 WIN
Iowa -1.5 2200 LOSS
Idaho +30.5 2200 LOSS
Saturday, October 20, 2012
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Seattle at San Francisco
We like the favorite tonight even though dogs have been very good to us. Seattle is coming off an upset win against the mighty Patriots. It wasn't an upset to us since we had them, but they're very pleased with themselves. The 49ers are coming off a humiliating defeat at the hands of the Giants at home last week. Short week, home team, coming off a bad loss - we like the Niners.
We put the bet in early this week because we knew it would go up. It did, but we locked in 7.
Index
49ers -7 2200
We put the bet in early this week because we knew it would go up. It did, but we locked in 7.
Index
49ers -7 2200
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Week 6 is a Wrap
We won our first max bet on Green Bay Sunday night capping off an epic 9-0 day, winning 11 bets total and no losses. We were leading the week going into Monday night but decided to lay off because we had no idea what to expect and it ended up being the biggest comeback in Monday night history, so we were essentially right - the game could have gone either way. We gave up the weekly prize, which I think was very wise because we didn't force bet. For example, one guy max bet San Diego and the under and lost 11000. Just plain stupid. The weekly prize is for suckers, we have our eye on winning the whole thing and we didn't want a setback. We have 38173 and we're in 8th. The leader has 53400. 16 people are out. 21 have 20000 or more. I think we're in great position at this point. Our bets are going to be significantly bigger this weekend because we're sticking with the plan of betting 5-8% of our stack, so we could see some nice returns.
Sunday, October 14, 2012
NFL Sunday Week 6 (UPDATED)
We are currently in 18th because we've been struggling these past two weeks. A good winning day today would be pumpkin spice. We have several games on the slate that give us a chance.
We like the Jets to rebound from Monday night's loss against an emotionally spent Colts team. Last week they won for their coach who was diagnosed with leukemia. This week they should let down. The Jets have also lost 2 home games in a row and are playing a fairly odd third home game in a row, so we like them even more to really show up before they're booed out of town and relocated to Los Angeles.
Buffalo's defense has been absolutely terrible. We like them to turn it around this week against Arizona's terrible offense.
We're also going to bet against some streaks. Minnesota and Baltimore have won 3 in a row and Houston has won 5 in a row. Detroit and Tampa Bay have lost 3 and Cleveland has lost 5 in a row. Atlanta has won 5 in a row but Oakland is a new coach going cross country, so were off that one.
We like Seattle because New England has won 2 in a row scoring 30+. Seattle has the best defense in the league. Everyone in the pool will be taking the Patriots so we see a value opportunity here to up our bet because we know we're going to be betting against the crowd, so a chance to make up ground.
We have reasons to take both sides of Giants at 49ers so we're laying off, but there's a lot going on there. 49ers have been really hot, too hot even. But they're also looking for playoff revenge, so it's a no-play.
Index
Detroit +3.5 1450 WIN
Tampa -4 1450 WIN
Cleveland +1.5 1450 WIN
Buffalo +5 1450 WIN
Seattle +3.5 1700 WIN
Seattle +4 1450 WIN
Washington +1 1450 WIN
Green Bay +3.5 1450
Jets -3.5 1700 WIN
Dallas +3 1450 WIN
UPDATE
Today was a day made by The Lord. Let us rejoice. Today, we unbelievably went 8-0 and we have Green Bay up 21-10 at halftime. We made two adjustments that we saw as opportunities to be aggressive. First, we knew everyone in the pool would be on the Patriots so we essentially doubled up while the early games were going well. We saw it as an opportunity to gain on everyone. Ad it turned out to be exactly that after a crazy game in Seattle as rookie Russell Wilson led a comeback from down two touchdowns. The Seattle defense is tough.
The second opportunity we had was to increase our bet on Green Bay after winning all of the other games. We were second in the weekly standing and decided to go for the weekly prize, which is equal to more than half our investment. We liked Green Bay tonight and don't have any feel for tomorrow's game, so we decided to go for it tonight and bet the max. The biggest consideration was - would we be happy with 27000+ if we lost this bet. We decided that would be ok with that as our total to end the week, so we went max on Green Bay. This is a spot where we knew we should go for it. You have to be mainly conservative and play your system, but it's critical to be able to be risky and aggressive when the moment calls for it. This was our moment. I'm sure there'll be other moments and I hope that we are able to see them and seize the opportunity. If you are only conservative you'll get trampled in the herd and if you're too risky you'll be out, like the leader going into the week who lost 28000 this weekend. Have faith in your system, stick with it even if hope seems lost, and when you feel the moment - strike without mercy and crush your enemies. Become the zen gambling warrior.
We like the Jets to rebound from Monday night's loss against an emotionally spent Colts team. Last week they won for their coach who was diagnosed with leukemia. This week they should let down. The Jets have also lost 2 home games in a row and are playing a fairly odd third home game in a row, so we like them even more to really show up before they're booed out of town and relocated to Los Angeles.
Buffalo's defense has been absolutely terrible. We like them to turn it around this week against Arizona's terrible offense.
We're also going to bet against some streaks. Minnesota and Baltimore have won 3 in a row and Houston has won 5 in a row. Detroit and Tampa Bay have lost 3 and Cleveland has lost 5 in a row. Atlanta has won 5 in a row but Oakland is a new coach going cross country, so were off that one.
We like Seattle because New England has won 2 in a row scoring 30+. Seattle has the best defense in the league. Everyone in the pool will be taking the Patriots so we see a value opportunity here to up our bet because we know we're going to be betting against the crowd, so a chance to make up ground.
We have reasons to take both sides of Giants at 49ers so we're laying off, but there's a lot going on there. 49ers have been really hot, too hot even. But they're also looking for playoff revenge, so it's a no-play.
Index
Detroit +3.5 1450 WIN
Tampa -4 1450 WIN
Cleveland +1.5 1450 WIN
Buffalo +5 1450 WIN
Seattle +3.5 1700 WIN
Seattle +4 1450 WIN
Washington +1 1450 WIN
Green Bay +3.5 1450
Jets -3.5 1700 WIN
Dallas +3 1450 WIN
UPDATE
Today was a day made by The Lord. Let us rejoice. Today, we unbelievably went 8-0 and we have Green Bay up 21-10 at halftime. We made two adjustments that we saw as opportunities to be aggressive. First, we knew everyone in the pool would be on the Patriots so we essentially doubled up while the early games were going well. We saw it as an opportunity to gain on everyone. Ad it turned out to be exactly that after a crazy game in Seattle as rookie Russell Wilson led a comeback from down two touchdowns. The Seattle defense is tough.
The second opportunity we had was to increase our bet on Green Bay after winning all of the other games. We were second in the weekly standing and decided to go for the weekly prize, which is equal to more than half our investment. We liked Green Bay tonight and don't have any feel for tomorrow's game, so we decided to go for it tonight and bet the max. The biggest consideration was - would we be happy with 27000+ if we lost this bet. We decided that would be ok with that as our total to end the week, so we went max on Green Bay. This is a spot where we knew we should go for it. You have to be mainly conservative and play your system, but it's critical to be able to be risky and aggressive when the moment calls for it. This was our moment. I'm sure there'll be other moments and I hope that we are able to see them and seize the opportunity. If you are only conservative you'll get trampled in the herd and if you're too risky you'll be out, like the leader going into the week who lost 28000 this weekend. Have faith in your system, stick with it even if hope seems lost, and when you feel the moment - strike without mercy and crush your enemies. Become the zen gambling warrior.
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