Superbowl Prediction

My criteria for winning the Superbowl is having a strong organization, smart coaches, a core group of talented players, and a fearless quarterback who is willing to make passes and handle pressure.

AFC Playoff Teams:

Baltimore

Denver

Indianapolis

New England 

Houston

Pittsburgh

NFC Playoff Teams:

Philadelphia

San Francisco

Seattle

Washington

New Orleans

Green Bay

Superbowl:

New England over Green Bay

AFC South Win Total and Division Predictions

Houston - 10 - UNDER

Last year was the best season in Texans history in a few ways and they won't match it.  This year they'll regress to fighting for the playoffs.  A tough stretch early at Baltimore, against Seattle, and at San Francisco will cripple this shaky team.  

Indianapolis - 8.5 - OVER

Don't be surprised when this team wins the division.  I believe in Andrew Luck and the Colts made improvements where they needed to.  Plus, they have one of the easiest, if not the easiest, schedules in the league this season.

Jacksonville - 5 - UNDER

The Jaguars are a terrible team.  New coaches and lots of new players.  No hope for a good season.  

Tennessee - 6.5 - UNDER

At, or by, the end of the season Jake Locker will be out at QB, Munchak will be fired, and the number of games this team has won - you'll be able to count on one hand.  

Best Bet - Indianapolis OVER

1. Indianapolis 11-6

2. Houston 9-7

3. Tennessee 4-12

4. Jacksonville 3-13

    

NFC North Win Total and Division Predictions

Chicago - 8.5 - UNDER

The offense did not bring in any help, besides new coaches, during the offseason and that was their biggest need. The defense can't be as good as it was last year. Jay Cutler and a new head coach from the CFL don't inspire confidence.

Detroit - 7.5 - UNDER
Detroit has a core of stars and not much else.  The Lions only won 4 games last year and they will improve on that but are they going to be in a fight for a playoff spot with this roster?  Definitely not.

Green Bay - 10 - OVER
The Packers are in the midst of a dominating run in the NFC North and this total will look low in hindsight.  Run to the betting counter and bet with both fists.

Minnesota - 7.5 - UNDER
Can't count on repeat amazing seasons from Adrian Peterson, so I think Minnesota will regress because I don't have faith in Ponder.  You can't expect wins when your QB is worse than 15 out of 16 opponents.

Best bet - Green Bay OVER

1. Green Bay 13-3
2. Chicago 7-9
3. Minnesota 6-10
4. Detroit 5-11

New NFL Head Coaches Week 1

Here's an article from NFP about how new NFL head coaches fare week 1.  (click here for link)

Basically, if you just wager blindly you'll lose your money over the long haul.  

AFC North Win Total and Division Predictions

Baltimore - 8.5 - OVER
The schedule looks like it has a few extra wins built in, so that's the determining factor here.  Baltimore is a strong organization and has good players and coaches.

Cincinnati - 8.5 - OVER
QB pressure is the deciding factor in this OVER.  The Bengals defense can create pressure and they have six games vs young QBs.

Cleveland - 6 - UNDER
Front office power struggles, new coaches, and young skill players.

Pittsburgh - 9 - OVER
Once again a team in this division benefits from an easy schedule.  Pittsburgh didn't get better but they have a solid defense and a good QB.  

Best bet - Cleveland UNDER

1. Pittsburgh 11-5
2. Baltimore 10-6
3. Cincinnati 9-7
4. Cleveland 4-12

NFC East Win Totals and Division Predictions

New York Giants - 9 - UNDER
The Giants didn't get better this off-season, unless you count recovering from serious injuries, which I don't count as a positive.  They play in a tough division.  Can Coughlin inspire Eli and the boys to play well for him one last time?  Doubtful.  7-9 or 8-8 seem more likely than 10-6, or 9-7 to PUSH.

Dallas Cowboys - 8.5 - UNDER
The Dallas Cowboys, from Jerry Jones to the coaches to the players, are defined by their ability to make bad decisions and they excel at finding ways to lose.

Philadelphia - 7 - OVER
The Eagles have talent on the field and they made a great decision to hire an innovative coach, so I think 10 wins is entirely possible.

Washington - 8 - OVER
If RG3 stays healthy they are a Superbowl contender.  

Best bet - Philadelphia OVER 7

1. Washington 11-5
2. Philadelphia 9-7
3. New York 8-8
4. Dallas 5-11

AFC East Win Total and Division Predictions

Buffalo - 6.5 - UNDER
This season will most likely put team owner Ralph Wilson into the grave.  New coaches, rookie QB, and few talented players.

Miami - 7.5 - UNDER
Easy pick.  The schedule is tougher than it looks and this team doesn't have the coaching or talent to go 8-8.

New York Jets - 6.5 - UNDER
The undoing of the team assembled under the Man-genius will be completed this season.  By the end of the season Rex Ryan will be fired, Sanchez will be benched, and the defense will be asked to do too much.

New England - 11.5 - OVER
Brady. Belichick.  I think it's more likely that they go 16-0 than UNDER 12 wins.  AFC Superbowl favorites. 

Best bet:

1. New England 14-2
2. Miami 5-11
3. Jets 4-12
4. Buffalo 3-13

AFC West Win Totals and Division Prediction

Denver - 11.5 - UNDER
I think 11 wins is the best this team can hope for.  John Fox should have been fired immediately after taking a knee in the 4th quarter and playing for overtime against Baltimore in the playoffs.  It was so stupid I just have a bad taste in my mouth from this team.  Plus, they're the Superbowl favorite, so the only place to go is down.  I'm not buying into this team.

San Diego - 7.5 - OVER
With new head coach Mike McCoy and OC Ken Whisenhunt I think the offense will be just fine, and I think a bounce-back season for Rivers is likely.  The defense didn't fix it's biggest problem - cornerback, and that is what stops me from thinking this team can win 10 games.  An 8-8, maybe 9-7, seems reasonable.

Kansas City - 7 - OVER
Out with Romeo Crennell and Matt Cassell/Brady Quinn and in with Andy Reid and Alex Smith.  Huge improvement, and with Jamaal Charles and a talented defense the Chiefs will surprise people this year.

Oakland - 5.5 - UNDER
This is probably the least talented team in the NFL.  There's already a plan in motion to tank this season.  Nobody has any idea what to do.  

Best bet: Oakland UNDER

1. Denver 10-6
2. San Diego 9-7
3. Kansas City 8-8
4. Oakland 1-15

NFC South Win Total Predictions

The NFC South contains average teams and Superbowl pretenders.

Atlanta - 10 - UNDER
Atlanta was lucky last season and overachieved. They've put a lot of pressure on themselves this season with the Superbowl-or-bust attitude, so if things get off to a slow start, which they likely will given the first four opponents, it could be tough to recover. 8-9 wins seems possible, and likely missing the playoffs.

Tampa Bay - 7.5 - OVER
I don't like Greg Schiano as an NFL coach.  I think his defensive coaching philosophy is flawed because stopping the pass is more important than stopping the run.  However, I think this team can win 8-9 games this year as long as Revis is 100%.  If Revis not 100%, the total will go UNDER.  Schiano will be gone after next season.

Carolina - 7.5 - UNDER
Only a fool would think that a team that will fire it's head coach during the season would win 8 or more games.  Ron Rivera is a terrible NFL head coach.  Mike Shula is not the right coach for Cam Newton.  Carolina fans will probably spend the season yelling at their televisions.  If they fire Rivera early enough then the under could be in jeopardy.

New Orleans - 9 - OVER
The defense will improve even though Rob Ryan is switching a 3-4.  The offense should improve too with Payton's return.  Brees and Payton should be able to out-gun enough teams to win 10 games.  

Best bet: Carolina UNDER

1. New Orleans 10-6
2. Atlanta 9-7
3. Tampa Bay 8-8
4. Carolina 6-10

NFC West Win Total & Division Predictions

The NFC West division has two Superbowl contenders and two bad teams.

Arizona 5.5 - UNDER

"You gotta laugh to keep from crying" said Larry Fitzgerald last year, and it won't get much better this year.  There's no hope for this team. Improvement at QB doesn't make up for getting worse at every other position and combine that with an entirely new coaching staff and this team may only win two games.

San Francisco 11.5 - OVER

12 wins is a lot of wins, but this team is stacked and the coaching staff remaining unchanged provides continuity.  No weaknesses.

St. Louis 7.5 - UNDER

I can't see the Rams getting 8 wins with such inexperienced offensive skill players and a mediocre secondary with a new defensive coordinator.  Jeff Fisher is overrated.  If the Rams win 8 games with this roster I'll take that back.

Seattle 10.5 - OVER
They have a new defensive coordinator and any drop-off makes them a much less dangerous team.  Best secondary in the league and solid front seven, but any injuries or suspensions, and problems could arise.  Russell Wilson is a good young QB but NFL coaches are smart and they'll figure out ways to give him a hard time.  Too much could go wrong with Pete Carroll, but I'm going OVER and ignoring my gut, which is tearing open with screams of UNDER UNDER UNDER.


Best bet: St. Louis UNDER

1. San Francisco 14-2
2. Seattle 11-6
3. St. Louis 4-12
4. Arizona 3-13

NFL Regular Season Over/Under Win Totals

Here are the totals from the LVH SuperBook from when I was there last week, so I'll use that as a reference:

Arizona 5.5

Atlanta 10

Baltimore 8.5
Bufflao 6.5
Carolina 7.5
Chicago 8.5
Cincinnati 8.5
Cleveland 6
Dallas 8.5
Denver 11.5
Detroit 7.5
Green Bay 10
Houston 10
Indianapolis 8.5
Jacksonville 5
Kansas City 7
Miami 7.5
Minnesota 7.5
New England 11.5
New Orleans 9
Giants 9
Jets 6.5
Oakland 5.5
Philadelphia 7
Pittsburgh 9
San Diego 7.5
San Francisco 11.5
Seattle 10.5 

St. Louis 7.5 

Tampa Bay 7.5
Tennessee 6.5
Washington 8