College Football & Rivalries

The best thing about college football is the rivalries and the trophies that go along with them.  There's a couple this week.  LSU-Auburn will play in the unofficial Tiger Bowl.  We're going to bet on New Mexico State against their rival New Mexico in the Rio Grande Rivalry.  The first meeting was in 1894.  We like State because New Mexico has a new coach and their on the road.  In fact, that's the reason we like all the games in college this week - we're picking against new coaches on the road.  Here's the rest:

Arizona @ Oregon

Kansas @ Northern Illinois

Massachusetts @ Miami OH

Ole Miss @ Tulane

Southern MIssissippi @ Western Kentucky

UAB @ Ohio State

We're also thinking about betting against Penn State because of, well, you know, all the trouble there.  It must be tough to stay focused on football.  

Index

Oregon -23.5 1300 WIN

New Mexico State -6.5 1300 LOSS

The Ohio State -36.5 1300 LOSS

Tulane +19 1300 LOSS

Western Kentucky -4.5 1300 WIN

Northern Illinois -9 1300 LOSS

Miami OH -25 1300 LOSS

Carolina

We had a total breakdown of the system, showed a complete lack of discipline, and did something we never should have done.  We put a bet in on Carolina five minutes before the game started.  Total degenerate move.  We're getting what we deserve because Carolina is down 20-0 at halftime.  Fortunately we bet small enough that we can handle losses and it is very far from crippling us.  After all, it is just one loss and we could have just as easily won the bet, but the takeaway here is that we betrayed ourselves and did something against the nature of what we believe in.  Hopefully, we learn from this, or else we're just like all the other shitheads who act like animals controlled by their impulses with no discipline or rational thought.

Index
Carolina -3 1300

I'm putting this down as a LOSS already and it's only the start of the 3rd quarter.  Pathetic.

NFL Week 3

We only like 2 games in the NFL this weekend.  We love the Jets against Miami.  Last week, the Jets got pounded by the Steelers and Miami ran all over the Raiders, so this week we expect the opposite outcome.

The only other game we like is Ravens-Patriots.  Baltimore thinks they were robbed of a Superbowl appearance last year by their kicker, who they subsequently cut.  Even though the game would have been tied with a successful kick the Ravens still believe they were robbed by the Patriots, so we think they've marked the calendar for this game to prove who should have been the true AFC representative in the Superbowl.  I don't like the Patriots coming off a home loss to Arizona, who were a 2 touchdown underdogs.

We also decided that we like Jacksonville because they were so terrible last week.

Index
Jacksonville +3 1300
Oakland +4 1300
NY Jets +3 1425

Week 2 Analysis

We are in 6th place with 25795 after week 2.  We gained 3295 this week and grew 15% during week 2.  Our overall record is 20-13-1 for a winning % of 60.6, which is higher than expected.   The leader has 49001.  He is 10-5 overall for 66.7% winners.  Now is the time for us to stick to what we're doing because there are wild fluctuations in the standings.

Weekly Index

-2 people gained over 10000
-4 lost over 10000
-12 lost over 5000
-8 gained over 5000

Overall Index

-2 with over 40000
-5 with over 30000
-22 with 20000 or more
-36 out of 58 entrants have lost shares overall (less than 20000)
-16 have 15000 or less
-5 have 10000 or less
-1 is eliminated...that's a quick $500

As of right now I think we are doing exactly what we want, perhaps a little better.  We will have to endure losing weekends so I'm prepared for that and I wouldn't be surprised if this weekend was bad because over 60% winners is hard to maintain.  The good thing is that our bankroll management strategy allows us to take a hit and survive, unlike some of the cowboys who are max betting.

I was introduced to another entrant at a bar and had a conversation with him.  He was in the pool last year as well.  He thinks this year's winner will have over 100K.  I told him that was absolutely not going to happen and offered him a side bet of $100 that the winner would have less than 100K.  Does he really think someone is going to make 5 times their starting amount of 20000?  I say no, definitely not.  If anyone in this pool was that good they should go straight to Vegas and become a millionaire.  But, if he thinks that, and a few other people think that, then they can go ahead and justify betting out of control and hope to get lucky.  Mr Pig and I will be there in the second half rolling right along while these fools are eliminated.

MNF: Denver-Atlanta

We're sitting this one out because we don't know who's going to win and we don't want to damage our successful week by placing a toss-up bet.  However, the results of the game will almost definitely give us a play for next week.  More on that later in the week.  Week 2 analysis and standings index coming tomorrow.

NFL Week 2

We had a nice day in college yesterday going 6-3.  I think we even missed entering the Georgia game, which would have been a win also.  Not really sure what happened there...need to be more organized apparently.  Today we have a few games we like based on a couple of different scenarios that took place last week and that have been trending this week.

We like Pittsburgh over the Jets.  Pittsburgh didn't play well against Denver last week and the Jets played out of their mind against Buffalo, so we like the Steelers to play a lot better and the Jets to play much worse.  

The Giants lost on opening night to Dallas and this week they're playing Tampa Bay in New Jersey, so we like the Giants against a team that played very well last week and playing their first road game under a new coach this week.  I love the Giants here.

We like Tennessee because San Diego played Oakland, a division rival, on Monday night, and we think that San Diego will have a letdown game and struggle to get up for Tennessee after playing a big game a short week ago.

We love Philly this week.  Baltimore played a division rival on Monday night (Cincinnati) and now they're playing a non-division, non-conference opponent in Philly.  Baltimore is also at the beginning of a stretch of 4 games in 17 days, and that can't be good; playing 25% of a 4 month season in 17 days.  The betting public also loves Baltimore, so we love hilly even more.   

Speaking of the betting public, there has been some big line movement this week and we're considering going the opposite way of the public just because we know amateur bettors are mostly wrong.  Based on the movement of the lines we know people love New Orleans, Dallas, Washington, and San Fran, so that put us on Carolina, Seattle, St. Louis, and Detroit.  

After my morning conversation with Mr. Pig we're going forward with the, to use a cliche, flip the script teams, except for Carolina because they've been talking.  We don't like talk.  We love overreactions and media hype.      

Index - UPDATED

NY Giants -7 1100 PUSH

Pittsburgh -5 1100 WIN

Tennessee +6.5 1100 LOSS

Philadelphia -3 1325 LOSS

Seattle +3 1100 WIN

Detroit +7 1100 LOSS

St. Louis +3.5 1100 WIN