Our plays below are based on public perception versus our own statistics based analysis and ranking. The public has overvalued the teams we're betting against and the lines are favorable to where we think they should be. Hopefully most of these play out just like UNC did Thursday night with the publicly overvalued team getting crushed.
Index
Cincinnati -6.5 3200
Virginia Tech -10 3200
South Florida +7 3200
Rice +3.5 3200
Troy +3 3200
Tulane +9.5 3200
Wisconsin -2.5 3200
Oklahoma -11 3200
Syracuse +5 3200
Friday, November 16, 2012
Thursday, November 15, 2012
North Carolina at Virginia
We're laying off the NFL tonight. Even though Buffalo has lost 3 in a row, a situation we like to bet for, Miami got destroyed by Tennessee last week, so they're in a favorable betting situation too - lost by 25+ including the spread. So that is a no play, we'll just hope people ahead of us go the wrong way. Speaking of which, we are in 10th place currently with 44, 487. The leader has 81,900, 21 people have 20,000+, and 20 are out with a few more soon to join them in betting shame. Due to the gap that is between us and the leaders we decided to up our bets 1%. We have time but this thing is essentially more than half over. We are not confident in our model for the NFL playoffs and we think the NFL playoffs can be pretty unpredictable, so we're stepping it up slightly now so we don't have to make desperation bets later, something we are very much looking forward to avoiding. I believe we can win. We have solid list for Saturday's games and I'm confident, but that means nothing, or does it? Either way check back Saturday morning.
For tonight's college game we like North Carolina. Virginia is all of a sudden a sexy pick for no good reason. North Carolina is a much better team, we have them ranked much higher in our rankings and to get UNC at -3 is a good value. UNC defense gave up 68 to Georgia Tech last week so you have to figure they were tuned in at practice this week and will be looking to shut down Virginia.
Index
UNC -3 3200 WIN
For tonight's college game we like North Carolina. Virginia is all of a sudden a sexy pick for no good reason. North Carolina is a much better team, we have them ranked much higher in our rankings and to get UNC at -3 is a good value. UNC defense gave up 68 to Georgia Tech last week so you have to figure they were tuned in at practice this week and will be looking to shut down Virginia.
Index
UNC -3 3200 WIN
Monday, November 12, 2012
MNF: KC at Pittsburgh
We're in 11th place with 44486, which means we had a positive week, and makes it easier to sit out tonight if that is the right play. If we take anything tonight we like the UNDER, but we won't take it at less than 41. We're going to wait until just before kickoff to see how high the public pushes it, so far it's actually gone down. 41+ or we're sitting out.
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Veterans Days NFL Football
I would like to show my gratitude for veterans by demonstrating my freedom and gambling on football.
Today we like Cincinnati because they're on a 3 game skid and the Giants are still recovering from Sandy and they're going on vacation next week. They have to take care of the pets and pick up the dry cleaning - they're not focused on football. Hopefully.
Carolina is going to be a second half cover machine in our view and that makes them a good bet today because Denver has been playing very well winning 3 in a row and scoring 30+ points. They cool off today on a trip to the east coast.
New Orleans should finally give Atlanta their first loss today. Atlanta doesn't play as well on the road and they've won 8 games in a row.
Detroit has marked this game on the calendar because they lost at home to Minnesota earlier this year and they lost ugly too, giving up 2 special teams TDs. They have a bad taste in their mouths.
We like Chicago to snap their winning streak against Houston. Chicago's schedule has been a creampuff and this week they have a much tougher opponent and they're on national tv, which always makes me nervous about which team Smokin Jay Cutler will throw the ball to.
Dallas seems to be a good bet today because Philly is collapsing. Andy Reid is checked out and the offensive line is going to get Mike Vick killed. They have talented players on Philly, unlike Jacksonville, and that they are playing this bad tells you something. They quit - that's what it tells me.
Tampa Bay has won 2 games in a row and scored a lot of points so we like San Diego.
Our model spit out KC and St Louis but we have a hard time taking those teams - KC in general and St Louis because they're playing at San Francisco. Double digit spreads in the NFL cover blindly at 54%, so there's that.
Update
We're taking St Louis and Buffalo. St Louis because they have lost 3 in a row. Buffalo because we got +13.5 and people in our pool will be all over New England and we need to go against the herd to win this thing.
Index
Cincinnati +4.5 2300 WIN
Carolina +3.5 2650 LOSS
New Orleans +1.5 2300 WIN
Detroit -3 2300 LOSS
Dallas -2 2300 WIN
Buffalo +13.5 2300 WIN
St Louis +13 2300 WIN
San Diego +3 2300 LOSS
Houston +1 2300 WIN
Today we like Cincinnati because they're on a 3 game skid and the Giants are still recovering from Sandy and they're going on vacation next week. They have to take care of the pets and pick up the dry cleaning - they're not focused on football. Hopefully.
Carolina is going to be a second half cover machine in our view and that makes them a good bet today because Denver has been playing very well winning 3 in a row and scoring 30+ points. They cool off today on a trip to the east coast.
New Orleans should finally give Atlanta their first loss today. Atlanta doesn't play as well on the road and they've won 8 games in a row.
Detroit has marked this game on the calendar because they lost at home to Minnesota earlier this year and they lost ugly too, giving up 2 special teams TDs. They have a bad taste in their mouths.
We like Chicago to snap their winning streak against Houston. Chicago's schedule has been a creampuff and this week they have a much tougher opponent and they're on national tv, which always makes me nervous about which team Smokin Jay Cutler will throw the ball to.
Dallas seems to be a good bet today because Philly is collapsing. Andy Reid is checked out and the offensive line is going to get Mike Vick killed. They have talented players on Philly, unlike Jacksonville, and that they are playing this bad tells you something. They quit - that's what it tells me.
Tampa Bay has won 2 games in a row and scored a lot of points so we like San Diego.
Our model spit out KC and St Louis but we have a hard time taking those teams - KC in general and St Louis because they're playing at San Francisco. Double digit spreads in the NFL cover blindly at 54%, so there's that.
Update
We're taking St Louis and Buffalo. St Louis because they have lost 3 in a row. Buffalo because we got +13.5 and people in our pool will be all over New England and we need to go against the herd to win this thing.
Index
Cincinnati +4.5 2300 WIN
Carolina +3.5 2650 LOSS
New Orleans +1.5 2300 WIN
Detroit -3 2300 LOSS
Dallas -2 2300 WIN
Buffalo +13.5 2300 WIN
St Louis +13 2300 WIN
San Diego +3 2300 LOSS
Houston +1 2300 WIN
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)