Texas & Arizona State

For late evening games we like Texas to cover a big spread, which makes me nervous give that we've lost the last 3 with big spreads, but you got to forget that and shake it off.  Texas is playing New Mexico and they stink.  They have a new coach who was commentating for ESPN for the last 10 years and they're on the road.  We also like Arizona State over Illinois because once again we've got a new coach on the road.  

Index
Texas -38 880
Arizona State -3.5 1100

Update:
-Texas smashed New Mexico 45-0, so that was a nice win.
-Arizona State has jumped out to a nice lead 28-7 over Illinois, so hopefully we can finish the first full day of college football with a couple of wins.

FIU, Oregon, & Arkansas State

I am loving it right now.  Just got cable back after giving it up for the summer, so I can watch as much football as I want.  This evening we like Florida International because they're playing at home against Akron, who has a new coach and QB.

Last week, Oregon jumped way ahead of Arkansas St., but the final score was 57-34, so even though the score was 50-10 at halftime if you only saw the final score you might have wondered why Oregon only won by 23 against a much weaker team.  I think Oregon might be looking to make a statement this week, and we like that Fresno State has a new coach.  I especially like that the new coach is changing the defense to a 3-4 and offense significantly from pro-style to a spread.  Gameplan are complicated and college players are kids, and some of these players were recruited to play a different type scheme, so hopefully Oregon completely blows them out because the spread is pretty big.  

I mentioned Arkansas State played Oregon last week, but they're playing Memphis this week.  Memphis has one of, and possibly, the worst teams in Division 1A.  They also have a new coach who is changing the offense, a transfer QB, and they're playing on the road against a team that got smashed by Oregon last week.  We like an angry Arkansas St. team who is probably looking to bet someone up.  

Index

FIU -23.5 880

Oregon -35 880

Arkansas State -23 880

Results:
FIU - Loss
Oregon - Loss
Arkansas State - Loss
Tough run in the late evening.

UNC-Wake and Betting Lines

North Carolina's last permanent coach, Butch Davis, was fired after months of NCAA investigations for improper benefits and suspicions of shady academics that somehow involved tutors and lying.  When Davis was fired he said, "I can honestly say I leave with the full confidence that I have done nothing wrong."  UNC is on the road against Wake Forest.  The line opened at UNC -6, and has moved to -10.5, which means enough money has come on UNC to move the line.  Betting lines are set by sportsbook and the goal of setting a line is to split the bettors 50/50.  The goal is not to try and figure out what the final score will be, a common misconception, because how is anyone possibly going to figure that out.  The goal is to split the money coming in on bets and the sportsbooks will be assured of a profit by collecting 10% vigorish, or vig, or juice.  For example, we're betting 880 to win 800 on Wake, if we win we get only 800 and if we lose we lose 880, either way, 10% is forfeited.  The line move on UNC is great because we like Wake, and we love going against the public.

Index
Wake +10.5 880
    
Result
Wake - Win

Penn State

Everyone knows what happened at Penn State this off-season.  Penn State has a new head coach since Joe Paterno is now disgraced and dead.  Perhaps it is the understatement of the year to say that Penn State's leadership is unsteady right now.  New coach, new system, players transferring, and a road game against Virginia provides an excellent betting opportunity.  This is our biggest bet of the day.

Tulane is playing a road game against Tulsa.  The new Tulane coach is come from the Saints in the NFL, who also had a scandal plagued off-season, but that is irrelevant here, except for the new coach.  We're taking Tulsa and have a lot of points to cover.  

Update:

-PSU is up 7 and they look like they came to ply today.  Could be trouble.  I thought Virginia had some momentum after banging the PSU QB, but they just threw an interception giving PSU great field position.  

-Tulsa just scored to make it 28-3.

2nd Update:
PSU just missed their second field goal, keeping us in it.

3rd Update:
Scary moment in Tulsa game as Tulane player needed CPR on the field and was carried off in an ambulance.  It makes me feel physically uneasy just thinking about it.  Hope he's ok.  Life is fragile and can be taken in an instant at any moment.  

Index

Virginia -10 1100

Tulsa -25.5 880

Results:
-Penn State played well despite losing the lead late, but should have won outright.  They missed at least three fields goals, one extra point, and dropped a TD pass.
-Tulsa won easily 45-10, so we're 1-1 going into the evening.    

Opening Weekend

We're heading into the opening weekend sitting in first place, and there's about 50 entries so we're feeling good.  We have 9 college football games we like on Saturday, and we're planning to bet them all.  There's a weekly prize of about $150-$200 for whoever earns the most shares in a given week.  We're ahead now, but there's only been two games so the weekly prize hasn't factored into our plans, at all.  Of course, it would be nice, but we're not deviating from our long term goal for a short term reward.  Since everyone is still alive and kicking for this weekend I'm expecting some wild betting.  I predict that there will be some max bettors and someone will get lucky and hit a few and snatch the weekly payout.  I also predict that a couple of people will blow their load this weekend.  Anyone that risks the max amount this early is just plain stupid.  The max amount allows for just about 4 bets right now.  In gambling there's always hot and cold streaks.  A gambler must be able to survive the worst case scenario.  Losing 4 bets is somewhat likely, so bankroll management is critical.  I think we need to have a safety net of about 10 losses, at least.  I don't expect to lose 10 in a row exactly, but I do expect to get cold, so we have to be able to take that hit and still be a viable contender.  One guy bet the max on the Cowboys-Giants over, and lost, of course, so now he's down over 25% of his stack.  Foolish.        

Pitt-Cincy

The Pittsburgh-Cincinnati college game tonight was an opportunity that Mr. Pig and I had been talking about for several days.  Pitt is a total disaster.  They've had six coaches in a little over a year.  One of the biggest differences between college and the NFL is that the players are kids.  The head coach is incredibly important for providing leadership and stability.  Pitt has none of these things.  This is the first road game and we're hoping it's a disaster.  Money came in on Cincy and moved the line up, but we got it before it peaked fortunately.

INDEX

Cincy -4.5 1100

Update:
Cincy rushed for a 58 yard TD less than a minute and a half into the game.  Good start, but there's a lot of football left.

    
2nd Update:
Cincy is up 34-10 with 34 seconds left. 

NFL Kickoff

The betting lines finally appeared on the morning of September 5th.  Tonight's game between Dallas-NYG is the first game on which we can wager.  You can't wager on every game because you'll go broke fast.  We have discussed many opportunities over the past week, mostly college games, and nothing really stood out in tonight's NFL opening game.  I had some time this afternoon to scout Dallas/NYG and I uncovered some interesting information that was overlooked.  Last year, NYG beat Dallas twice in the the last four weeks.  In week 14 NYG won in Dallas and in week 17 they won again, which ended the season for Dallas.  Dallas has to be bitter and that had to have stung throughout the off-season.  At some point, if I was a Cowboy, I know I would have marked the calendar for September 5th. 

Some people must be thinking the NYG will win, so what are they thinking?  Well, NYG won the Superbowl and they're opening the season in front of their home crowd, so people in New York will surely go bananas as their champions are crowned.  The NYG spent time in the off-season celebrating and congratulating themselves while the Cowboys slept restlessly and woke up every morning with a bitter taste in their mouths.  Dallas was motivated to win this game, or at least cover by 3.5.  

The next thing we have to decide is how much to wager on Dallas, which is complicated by a number of factors.  We are rookies in this contest, so we don't know the people or their wagering tendencies.  After this weekend we think we'll have some idea of what we're dealing with.  We suspect that there'll be lunatics making crazy bets, conservatives making small bets, and probably people like we intend to be - disciplined and balancing risk with reward.  For the opening week we're leaning more conservative to get a feel for everything, and we plan to adjust our strategy after seeing what other people are doing. Ideally, our system will allow us to rise to the top over the course of the season.  We feel that the last few weeks of the NFL season and the college bowl season are our prime time, so hopefully we'll be in contention late.  There's going to be ups and downs, hot streaks and cold streaks, and it's very important to have minimized risk enough to avoid getting wiped out, but also risked enough to get near the top.  

We settled on a loose 3 star wagering system.  If there is a factor that we believe gives us an edge we want to take that risk, and that's a 1 star play.  Two factors for 2 stars and 3 for 3.  If we feel there's information on both sides we don't play.  Ultimately, it's a game of acquiring information and using it successfully.  Does it matter that the star running back broke a beer bottle over someone's head at a frat party and got suspended?  

The core of our philosophy is finding the team that is motivated to win.  Does it matter if Pittsburgh has the number 1 ranked rushing defense?  No, those are just numbers that have been affected by many other factors.  Stats don't matter, mostly.  If Pittsburgh is playing Houston, the number 1 rushing offense, you could see advantages for both sides.  Pittsburgh will be able to shut down their run game.  Conversely, Houston's run game is so good they'll still be able to run the ball.  The information that we need should provide insight into the mindset of the team.

Before we get to deep into our core philosophy let's remember that successful gamblers need only to win 55% of the time, approximately.  You will lose with any strategy, and lose often.  The gambler that has made the most bets has also lost the most bets.  Anyone that says they win 80% of the time is a liar and a fool.  

We decided to risk 1100, or 5.5% of our 20,000 shares, on Dallas tonight.

Index

Dallas +3.5 1100

Result - Win

I Want In

The end of the summer has a distinct feel.  Even though the season with the nicest weather is coming to an end there is an anticipation and excitement unlike any other time of year.  Back to school and football season.  We're probably conditioned to crave football.  Hockey doesn't interest me, soccer has never really caught on, baseball gets boring, and basketball is probably fixed.  Football is perfect, or the closest sport to being perfect.  Games are exciting and at conveniently scheduled times.  Football doesn't come soon enough and I always want more.  The rest of February after the Superbowl is cold and dark.  

However, there is one thing that is better than football.  How could you possibly make something that is nearly perfect even better?  Achieving perfection is not possible, it's not meant to be attained.  It is something to strive for.  Humans need to continually be improving.  But, the one thing that's better than football is gambling on football.  

It was with this excitement and enthusiasm that I used my contacts to find a suitable challenge for this football season.  I heard about a $500 per entry share pool.  Each entrant is given 20,000 shares to wager on any college of NFL point spread.  A buddy of mine told me to reference him and gave me the contact information for the pool organizer.  I'm not a rich man, so I called my friend, who we'll call Mr. Pig, in the hopes that he'd partner with me.  Mr. Pig loves gambling and can talk about it all day, so he is the perfect partner for the pool.  

I shot off an email, and an hour later, without ever laying eyes on me or hearing my voice, he welcomed me right in, via email.  Done and done.  This might be the best football season ever.  

I reckon that we have a pretty decent chance to win.  I'm sure there are other partnered up entries and it's an advantage because there's double the brainpower accumulating information.  As long as both partners agree on a general betting philosophy it will work.  Mr. Pig and I share the same sports gambling philosophy.  If we win we'll probably split at least $10,000.  Would you pay $250 for 5 months of excitement and entertainment?  I certainly would, so if we lose, we still win.