Saturday College Football

We have a good slate of games today and a few uncomfortably large spreads to cover. We got a little trigger happy and bent the rules for the last pick we rushed to put in. We took Wake Forest against this years sexy Championship pick - Florida State. FSU has been picked by several people to win it all this season. The good thing about that for us is that it's obviously adding pressure to the FSU kids and their heads are swelling. Hopefully today they will be looking ahead to Clemson next week, their first true test this season. We like Wake Forest to cover +27.5.

Maryland coach Randy Edsall left UConn 2 years ago Bill Parcells style. After the bowl game he didn't even take the plane home with them, instead he went straight to interview with Maryland. Some UConn players were pissed, and today they can take out their frustrations, so hopefully they will.

We also like several teams who are playing at home against teams with new coaches.  We like SMU +12.5 against Texas A&M, which we locked in early and went down so we have a couple extra points on our side.  We like Louisville against North Carolina.  Missouri lost key player but we like them anyway against a hot Arizona State team.  UCLA should be able to cover against Houston.  Then we have 3 games with big spreads.  Texas Tech and South Carolina have to cover -33 for us, and Michigan has to cover -45 against UMass.  They make me nervous but college scores can get crazy.  If we go 2-1 in the big spread games I'll be good with that.

Index UPDATED
Wake Forest +27.5 880 LOSS
UConn -2.5 1100 WIN
SMU +12.5 1100 LOSS
Louisvile -3 1100 WIN
Missouri -6.5 1100 LOSS
UCLA -17 1100 WIN
Texas Tech -32.5 1100 WIN
South Carolina -33 1100 WIN
Michigan -45 1100 WIN

Washington State at UNLV

We've got a little action on Friday night because Washington State has a new coach and they're on the road.  Mike Leach is the new coach, he was dismissed controversially from Texas Tech.  We locked in our bet early in the week and were rewarded because the spread moved away from us, so we have a couple of extra points.

Index
UNLV +10.5 1100

Update
Fortunately we locked in +10.5 early in the week because Washington State won by 8. Had we put the bet in on the day of the game we would have only got +8 and pushed. WIN

Update 2
14 people put bets in on Washington State or UNLV yesterday, they all pushed.

Thursday Night Football

We've got two games tonight, one college and one pro.  Early in the week we locked in Green Bay at -6 because we thought people would realized that Green Bay went 15-1 last year and after getting whooped by the 49ers at home last week that they would be looking to refocus and get serious about 2012.  We didn't want to have to cover a whole touchdown so we grabbed -6 while it was there.  Even though we like Green Bay the public likes Chicago, who is way too over-confident.  It's the oldest rivalry in professional football.  These two teams hate each other.  People are loving the swagger of the Bears.  Jay Cutler is saying "good luck" to the Packers secondary and Brandon Marshall is going on about how he's bigger and tougher than the Packers secondary.  They're giving Green Bay plenty of bulletin board material.  People have ignored this or failed to realize it because they are way too high on Chicago so the line moved favorable to us, but we'd already locked in Green Bay, so unfortunately we have to cover an extra point and a half.

In college tonight we like South Florida who is playing Rutgers.  This will be the first road game for the new Rutgers head coach.  Former coach Greg Schiano left for Tampa Bay in the NFL and took most of his assistants with him, so hopefully tonight is a disaster.  They actually won their first road game 2 weeks ago, but failed to cover the spread, in fact, they've won both games they've played but failed to cover in each.  That doesn't make me feel good because at some point they're going to play as well or better than expected.  South Florida is significantly better, especially offensively, than Tulane and Howard, Rutgers only two opponents this year, and they're playing at home.  Last year, SF was up on Rutgers 17-3 before Rutgers won in overtime 20-17, so South Florida should be focused and prepared to keep their heads in the game.

Index
Green Bay -6 1100
South Florida -7.5 1100

Update
-South Florida really blew it tonight.  Couldn't capitalize on a ton of Rutgers penalties and turned the ball over in red zone.  Poor.  Rutgers came up with a couple of circus catch intercepions, so that didn't help.  LOSS
-Green Bay isn't quite the same as they were last year.  Aaron Rodgers seems to be focusing on the officiating too much.  Fortunately, the Chicago offense was putrid.  Jay Cutler wishing good luck to the Green Bay secondary has really really been paying off, truly it has, Cutler has thrown 3 interceptions.

Update 2
Make that 4 interceptions for Cutler.  GB is kneeling on it.  WIN

Fantasy Football Interlude

I'm in several fantasy football leagues and before the betting for this week gets underway I have to share this gem of an exchange I had earlier today.

For the draft in this league several guys got together at Mr. Pig's house.  I knew all the guys there except for one.  This league starts one tight end and no flex.  I drafted in the 10th spot, out of 12, and before I made my 5th round pick I checked spots 11 and 12 to see if they had QBs or TEs.  They had Jimmy Graham and Gronkowski, and the 12 spot had Cam Newton.  The two guys I wanted were Matt  Ryan and Aaron Hernandez.  No-brainer right?  Take Ryan and Hernandez will be there on the comeback.  So I take Matt Ryan.  Pick 11 conceded that he would have most definitely taken him, so I thought I was about to win the league right there with a stud TE.  Then 12 spot picks Hernandez!  And he already has the #1 TE - Gronk.  There is no way for him to play these two guys together, ever.

So, today, I offer Percy Harvin for Aaron Hernandez.  He doesn't decline or officially counter-offer, but instead sends me a message that says "I'll trade Hernandez for MJD."  Since he didn't counter, and thus decline, my offer and it's still sitting there, I know he's considering my Harvin offer.  I'm going to do a little bullying and threaten to pull my offer to try and force him into action.  My response is here:

Subject: Clown Trade, Bro

Are you insane dude?  Your backup tight end for my #1 running back.  You are being unreasonable and I no longer have interest in Hernandez if you are going to bring that bush league b.s. to the bargaining table.  If you let Hernandez sit on your bench you are not maximizing the potential of your team and hurting only yourself.  I offered you a nice WR1 who has great upside.  If you don't like Percy Harvin then we're not doing business.  I could have low-balled you and offered you some garbage trade but I had enough respect for you to make a serious offer.  You know I want Hernandez but I'm not so attached to obtaining him that I'm going to hurt my team.  If you get a better offer take it because Harvin is as far as I'll go, and I think Harvin is more than you'll get anywhere else because the trade today involving Bradshaw and Lafell is like the first trade, maybe ever, in this league.  Accept my offer within the two days it's available or feel free to decline it, but you should know that it's the only one I'm offering and this conversation is over.    

Update - next day
He doesn't reply but instead offers me a trade with Hernandez for MJD and the message says "I think it's a fair trade Hernandez will be top 2 or 3 TE."  MJD led the league in rushing last year and he's offering me his backup TE.  He is obviously a fucking moron.  I won't in any way be responding to him.  He still hasn't officially declined Hernandez for Harvin.

Week 1 Analysis

At the start of week 2 we find ourselves tied for 9th out of 58.  We went 9-6 in week 1, 60% winners.  We have increased our shares to 22,500, or a 12.5% increase.  I think this was a very good week.  Mr. Pig didn't seem quite as happy because he said he hates looking at the standings and seeing people significantly ahead of us.  I told him the solution to that was - don't look at the standings.  If we stay disciplined and stick with our strategy then I'm confident we will win, or at least finish in the money.  Picking winners is only part of successful gambling.  Bankroll management is hugely important to consistent success.  Let's take a look at the rest of the standings and I'll point out a few things I expect to happen.

The person in first place has 35,300.  He lost his first two bets for 1100, 1100, then won 5 in a row at 3000, 5000, 2000, 2500, 5000, in that order.  Just as I predicted before the weekend started - the winner of this week would make big bets and get hot.  Exactly what happened.  Compare this to the person in last place, who has only 2292 remaining.  In order his bets were:

1100

1100

220

3300

3300

5500

5500

2180

5500

5500

4081

5500

Both betting patterns are that of degenerate gamblers.  Why?  Because bet sizes increased way too quickly.  A major sign of gambling addiction is the need to increase the size of your bets.  These two guys could easily have had opposite luck and be in the opposite place in the standings.  One won the weekly prize and the other is essential eliminated with almost no chance to comeback.  These wild swings are because of the bet size.  I predict that this guy in last will be eliminated next week and the guy in first probably by halfway through the season.  Both of them have demonstrated their lack of ability to manage a bankroll, and are subject to uncontrollable urges to bet more.  Neither has any chance of winning.  However, the guy in first already made back $300, so one more lucky week and he'll probably swing for the fences, which could be dangerous because if he gets hot again he could build up a lead and sit on it.  But I doubt that will happen.  

We decided that we like using somewhere between 3-5% for our bet size depending on the edge we believe we have, so our bet size will increase because our bankroll has increased, but by a reasonable, calculated amount, but at the same time our bet size is staying the same percentage-wise.  If you were to bet say 500 for every bet for the whole season and hit 55% or so winners - I don't think you'd make enough to win the pool.  You'd grind out a profit, but I'm not sure that it would be enough.    

Index

1. 35300

2. 34500

3. 30505

9. Us - 22500

20. 20500

30. 19922

40. 17800

50. 14980

58. 2292

       

Monday Night Football and a Special Delivery

There's two games tonight - Cincinnati-Baltimore and Oakland- San Diego.  Mr. Pig and I have been debating taking Oakland because in Week 17 last year San Diego beat Oakland and knocked them out of the playoffs.  We think Oakland might have marked the calendar on this one, but we're not feeling the revenge vibes.  Public money has shifted the line from Oakland +1 to Oakland -1, and we really hate betting with the public, so we've decided to wait and see.  If money comes in on San Diego then maybe we have a play.  Our first weekend has been successful, so we have no problem sitting this one out.

Jammed in the mailbox today was a package that I had been eagerly awaiting.  In the movie Training Day, as Denzel Washington's character Alonzo is preparing to use force to impose his will he stands collecting his gear and the following conversation takes place:

Alonzo: Gimme the bitch.

Jake: (hands Alonzo a shotgun) 

Alonzo uses this weapon when he is about to get into serious shit.  Today, when I peered into the mailbox I felt like Alonzo because I could see there was a large package containing the bitch.  

The Bitch

Update:

We opted to stay away from Oakland, and they ended up losing.  Good fortune.

Pittsburgh-Denver

The highlight of this game is the return of Peyton Manning after sitting out all of last year with neck problems.  All the pressure is on Denver and been relatively under the radar.  The last game Pittsburgh played was in the playoffs last year when they were eliminated on the first play of overtime on an 80-yard Tim tebow TD pass.  This play must have been shown a million times on ESPN and we believe that Pittsburgh has marked the calendar to even the score.  The Pittsburgh players have been saying all the right things to the media, but it has to be in their mind.  They're returning to the place where last season came to an end, quickly and brutally on a throw from Tebow and a stiff arm from Demarius Thomas.

Index
Pittsburgh +2 880

Update:
This is a grinder.  The Steelers are up 10-7 at the half.  This would be a nice win to cap off the day at 4-1, but there's plenty of football left tonight.

Update 2:
Having made plays all night Roethlisberger just threw a pick 6 with 2 minutes left.  That's all she wrote.  Gonna be a LOSS.  Will end up 3-2 today, which is 60%, fine by me.

The First NFL Sunday

The NFL is currently the most popular and successful professional sports league.  As far as gambling, it is a different animal altogether than college football.  The players are grown men and professionals.  Even if there is suspect leadership, players can usually be expected to play for themselves because they need to get paid.  The difference between the best NFL team and the worst is far, far smaller than in college.  Yesterday we saw the biggest spread in college football history with Florida State favored by 70.5 over Savannah State.  Savannah State had absolutely zero chance to win that game.  It was cancelled due to weather in the 3rd Q when the score was 55-0.  In the NFL, any teams can win.  The biggest spread today in the NFL is Miami +13, and they could win.

We're currently in 6th place in the pool, so it would be nice to have a good day in the NFL, but I'm pleased to be up and not down.  One guy is down over 50% at 8,650.  That's a tough hole to dig out of.  For today, we like 5 games and 1 Monday night.  

Indianapolis has a new coach and new QB and they're on the road, so we like Chicago despite a double-digit spread.  Indianapolis has changed a lot both offensively and defensively, and they are also under pressure to get off to a good start with the new coach and the #1 draft pick, new QB Andrew Luck.  Some people see this line and like the Colts, but we think the smart money is on the Bears.

We're debating whether or not to take Tampa Bay over Carolina.  The reason I think we have an edge is because no single player did more to embarrass Tampa Bay's defense last year than Cam Newton and Carolina beat Tampa twice last year in December by hefty margins.  So, we're thinking Tampa has marked the calendar.  

Jacksonville has a new coach, they're on the road, and the best running back in the league held out for more money all summer and show up last weekend, so we like Minnesota at home.

Miami has a new coach and a rookie QB.  Their struggles were also documented on the Hard Knocks tv show, which I think also added pressure on the team.  Despite the big spread we like Houston at home.

Index

Chicago - 10 1100

Tampa Bay +2.5 880

Minnesota -3.5 880

Houston -13 1100

Update:
-Somehow I managed to miss putting in the Minnesota bet.  Probably going to turn out favorable though. NOT A LOSS
-Houston - WIN
-Chicago is up and looking good.
Tampa kicks off at 4:25. WIN