NFL Kickoff

The betting lines finally appeared on the morning of September 5th.  Tonight's game between Dallas-NYG is the first game on which we can wager.  You can't wager on every game because you'll go broke fast.  We have discussed many opportunities over the past week, mostly college games, and nothing really stood out in tonight's NFL opening game.  I had some time this afternoon to scout Dallas/NYG and I uncovered some interesting information that was overlooked.  Last year, NYG beat Dallas twice in the the last four weeks.  In week 14 NYG won in Dallas and in week 17 they won again, which ended the season for Dallas.  Dallas has to be bitter and that had to have stung throughout the off-season.  At some point, if I was a Cowboy, I know I would have marked the calendar for September 5th. 

Some people must be thinking the NYG will win, so what are they thinking?  Well, NYG won the Superbowl and they're opening the season in front of their home crowd, so people in New York will surely go bananas as their champions are crowned.  The NYG spent time in the off-season celebrating and congratulating themselves while the Cowboys slept restlessly and woke up every morning with a bitter taste in their mouths.  Dallas was motivated to win this game, or at least cover by 3.5.  

The next thing we have to decide is how much to wager on Dallas, which is complicated by a number of factors.  We are rookies in this contest, so we don't know the people or their wagering tendencies.  After this weekend we think we'll have some idea of what we're dealing with.  We suspect that there'll be lunatics making crazy bets, conservatives making small bets, and probably people like we intend to be - disciplined and balancing risk with reward.  For the opening week we're leaning more conservative to get a feel for everything, and we plan to adjust our strategy after seeing what other people are doing. Ideally, our system will allow us to rise to the top over the course of the season.  We feel that the last few weeks of the NFL season and the college bowl season are our prime time, so hopefully we'll be in contention late.  There's going to be ups and downs, hot streaks and cold streaks, and it's very important to have minimized risk enough to avoid getting wiped out, but also risked enough to get near the top.  

We settled on a loose 3 star wagering system.  If there is a factor that we believe gives us an edge we want to take that risk, and that's a 1 star play.  Two factors for 2 stars and 3 for 3.  If we feel there's information on both sides we don't play.  Ultimately, it's a game of acquiring information and using it successfully.  Does it matter that the star running back broke a beer bottle over someone's head at a frat party and got suspended?  

The core of our philosophy is finding the team that is motivated to win.  Does it matter if Pittsburgh has the number 1 ranked rushing defense?  No, those are just numbers that have been affected by many other factors.  Stats don't matter, mostly.  If Pittsburgh is playing Houston, the number 1 rushing offense, you could see advantages for both sides.  Pittsburgh will be able to shut down their run game.  Conversely, Houston's run game is so good they'll still be able to run the ball.  The information that we need should provide insight into the mindset of the team.

Before we get to deep into our core philosophy let's remember that successful gamblers need only to win 55% of the time, approximately.  You will lose with any strategy, and lose often.  The gambler that has made the most bets has also lost the most bets.  Anyone that says they win 80% of the time is a liar and a fool.  

We decided to risk 1100, or 5.5% of our 20,000 shares, on Dallas tonight.

Index

Dallas +3.5 1100

Result - Win