Week 1 Analysis

At the start of week 2 we find ourselves tied for 9th out of 58.  We went 9-6 in week 1, 60% winners.  We have increased our shares to 22,500, or a 12.5% increase.  I think this was a very good week.  Mr. Pig didn't seem quite as happy because he said he hates looking at the standings and seeing people significantly ahead of us.  I told him the solution to that was - don't look at the standings.  If we stay disciplined and stick with our strategy then I'm confident we will win, or at least finish in the money.  Picking winners is only part of successful gambling.  Bankroll management is hugely important to consistent success.  Let's take a look at the rest of the standings and I'll point out a few things I expect to happen.

The person in first place has 35,300.  He lost his first two bets for 1100, 1100, then won 5 in a row at 3000, 5000, 2000, 2500, 5000, in that order.  Just as I predicted before the weekend started - the winner of this week would make big bets and get hot.  Exactly what happened.  Compare this to the person in last place, who has only 2292 remaining.  In order his bets were:

1100

1100

220

3300

3300

5500

5500

2180

5500

5500

4081

5500

Both betting patterns are that of degenerate gamblers.  Why?  Because bet sizes increased way too quickly.  A major sign of gambling addiction is the need to increase the size of your bets.  These two guys could easily have had opposite luck and be in the opposite place in the standings.  One won the weekly prize and the other is essential eliminated with almost no chance to comeback.  These wild swings are because of the bet size.  I predict that this guy in last will be eliminated next week and the guy in first probably by halfway through the season.  Both of them have demonstrated their lack of ability to manage a bankroll, and are subject to uncontrollable urges to bet more.  Neither has any chance of winning.  However, the guy in first already made back $300, so one more lucky week and he'll probably swing for the fences, which could be dangerous because if he gets hot again he could build up a lead and sit on it.  But I doubt that will happen.  

We decided that we like using somewhere between 3-5% for our bet size depending on the edge we believe we have, so our bet size will increase because our bankroll has increased, but by a reasonable, calculated amount, but at the same time our bet size is staying the same percentage-wise.  If you were to bet say 500 for every bet for the whole season and hit 55% or so winners - I don't think you'd make enough to win the pool.  You'd grind out a profit, but I'm not sure that it would be enough.    

Index

1. 35300

2. 34500

3. 30505

9. Us - 22500

20. 20500

30. 19922

40. 17800

50. 14980

58. 2292