Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Week 2 Analysis

We are in 6th place with 25795 after week 2.  We gained 3295 this week and grew 15% during week 2.  Our overall record is 20-13-1 for a winning % of 60.6, which is higher than expected.   The leader has 49001.  He is 10-5 overall for 66.7% winners.  Now is the time for us to stick to what we're doing because there are wild fluctuations in the standings.

Weekly Index

-2 people gained over 10000
-4 lost over 10000
-12 lost over 5000
-8 gained over 5000

Overall Index

-2 with over 40000
-5 with over 30000
-22 with 20000 or more
-36 out of 58 entrants have lost shares overall (less than 20000)
-16 have 15000 or less
-5 have 10000 or less
-1 is eliminated...that's a quick $500

As of right now I think we are doing exactly what we want, perhaps a little better.  We will have to endure losing weekends so I'm prepared for that and I wouldn't be surprised if this weekend was bad because over 60% winners is hard to maintain.  The good thing is that our bankroll management strategy allows us to take a hit and survive, unlike some of the cowboys who are max betting.

I was introduced to another entrant at a bar and had a conversation with him.  He was in the pool last year as well.  He thinks this year's winner will have over 100K.  I told him that was absolutely not going to happen and offered him a side bet of $100 that the winner would have less than 100K.  Does he really think someone is going to make 5 times their starting amount of 20000?  I say no, definitely not.  If anyone in this pool was that good they should go straight to Vegas and become a millionaire.  But, if he thinks that, and a few other people think that, then they can go ahead and justify betting out of control and hope to get lucky.  Mr Pig and I will be there in the second half rolling right along while these fools are eliminated.


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