NFL Week 3 - Against the Wall

We're in 10th place after an up and down 5-4 day yesterday in college. We have a bunch of picks we like this week. And I'm being threatened with banishment from my buddy's work pool after dominating the NFL picks last week - has America become just a bunch of pussies and snitches?

We like the New York Giants because week 3 is backs-against-the-wall week in the NFL and I'd much rather have 2-time Superbowl champions Eli and Tom Coughlin in my corner than Cam Newton and Ron Rivera, who might be fired over the bye - the dude has to go. The Giants are also coming off an embarrassing loss to Denver. Carolina, like I said, is going into a bye and starting last year the new collective bargaining agreement allows for a full week off, which means only the most focused teams will be able to avoids being distracted by taking care of the pets and picking up the dry-cleaning.  Carolina will fall into that trap and with a motivated Giants team - easy pick.

Green Bay is also going into a bye but they can avoid the distractions and take care of a Cincinnati team that is coming off a Monday night win against a division rival and in a prime spot for a letdown.

We like Minnesota not because of the Trent Richardson trade but because it's the first road game for a new coach.  But, Cleveland is essentially giving up on 2013.

It's Ray Lewis Ring of Honor day in Baltimore against a Houston team that has scored 30+ the last two weeks in squeaked out wins, and Baltimore is a home dog.  Also, last time these two teams met was Harbaugh's worst loss of his career.

Here are the rest of the games we're looking at right now:

Washington is a home dog and they are another teams with their back against the wall.  People are calling for Kirk Cousins, so it can't get much worse when fans are calling for the franchise QB to be benched.  Detroit is a dome team coming to play on grass and they should find a way to lose against a Washington team that badly needs a win.

St. Louis is playing in Dallas, but more importantly is playing San Francisco on Thursday night so this should be a lookahead and an easy win for Dallas, but it seems Dallas never has an easy win, especially at home.

Jacksonville is a 19 point underdog.  That's a good enough reason to take them.  This is the NFL.  Jacksonville spent the week on the west coast and should be focused on beating one of the superbowl contenders, or at least covering the large point spread.

Indy is playing in San Francisco in a Father Knows Best game, as Harbaugh coached Andrew Luck at Stanford.  The 49ers are coming off a beatdown from Seattle on Sunday night so they should be ready to play.

Buffalo has it's first road game with their new coach against the Jets, so we think that the Jets should be able to take care of business.

We think we like Pittsburgh as a home dog tonight because they are another back-against-the-wall team.

Minnesota -5.5 1650
NY Giants +1 1650
Green Bay -2.5 1650
Baltimore +1.5 1650

Maybes:
Washington
Dallas
Jacksonville
San Fran
NY Jets
Pittsburgh

College Football for 9/21

We're picking against a bunch of new coaches on the road.

Virginia Tech because we think they will play hard for the military honors game like they did last year.

There's some bad blood from last year between Wyoming and Air Force, so we're on WY.

New Coaches:
LSU -17.5 1650
Florida -17 1650
Kansas -10 1650
Memphis +4 1650
Wisconsin -24 1650
Rutgers -2.5 1650
Miami-Ohio +23.5 1650

Virginia Tech -9.5 1650
Wyoming

Chiefs at Eagles TNF

Kansas City is the pick tonight.  Andy Reid has had this game circled on his calendar since this is his homecoming to Philadelphia.  This is the Chiefs only primetime game all year.  These extra motivating factors lead us to believe that Kansas City will be ready to play tonight.  Let's start off the week with an early win.

Mr. Pig and I start the week in 12th place with 21900, about 10000 behind the leader, and only 24/78 entries have over 20,000 units, the starting amount.

Kansas City +3.5 1650 WIN

NFL Week 2

After a 4-2 day in college yesterday we're looking to get back to the Mendoza Line.

We took San Diego early in the week when the line was +7.5 because Philadelphia is coming off a Monday night win against a division opponent and now playing a non-division opponent, so we like this as a letdown situation.  Even with all the talk about Chip Kelly's revolutionary offense they scored only 7 points in the second half Monday against Washington.  Philadelphia also has a big game Thursday against Andy Reid so it could be a lookahead as well.

We like Baltimore because they were screwed out of a home-opener last week and got embarrassed in Denver.  Now they're playing a team they never have trouble with on extended rest.

Dallas played the Giants on Sunday night football and now they travel to Kansas City, where the Arrowhead stadium home field advantage has been lying dormant for years, but will be resurrected this season.  Letdown game for Dallas.

We're taking Tampa Bay, but we're waiting and hoping the line moves to +3.5.  New Orleans beat TB 41-0 in their last matchup last season and Josh Freeman threw 4 interceptions, and TB lost last week in an embarrassing fashion to the Jets, so we think TB will be motivated.

Atlanta is good coming off a straight up loss and Stephen Jackson is playing his old team that thinks he is too old.  One player doesn't make a team, but when a key offensive player is motivated that should rub off on other players to step it up.

Atlanta -5.5 1100 WIN
San Diego +7.5 1100 WIN
Baltimore -6.5 1100 WIN 
Kansas City -3 1100 LOSS
Tampa Bay +3/3.5 1100 MISSED GAMETIME

Philadelphia at Washington

We like Washington because Philadelphia has a new coach in his first road game. Chip Kelly looks confident but it could be a disaster. Lets hope so after our poor showing yesterday. Go Skins!

Washington -4 1100

NFL Week 1

You know it's the start of the NFL regular season when Tom Jackson is on ESPN talking about the Patriots like a complete moron, he claims the Patriots should have known what Aaron Hernandez was up to.  Good sign for the Patriots I guess since last time he was such a fool to speak on Patriots business they won the Superbowl.  So, thanks to that idiot, my preseason Superbowl pick is looking even better.

New England and Indy spreads have gotten too high for us.  I told Mr. Pig we should have taken them at -9 but that doesn't matter now.

We like Pittsburgh -6.5 against Tennessee because this line totally disrespects the Steelers.  They were favored by 6 last year in Tennessee and they lost the game outright after blowing a lead, and that game was on NFL Thursday night football, so revenge is a factor here. 

We're waiting to see if Carolina goes up to +3.5 and we're going to take that because Seattle is flying cross-country, playing early, and they play poorly on the road.  UPDATE: Carolina stuck on 3 so we're laying off.  

Another revenge game is Green Bay vs San Francisco because the 49ers completely annihilated the Packers in the playoffs last year.  Just look at what Peyton Manning Thursday after losing to Baltimore in the playoffs, they were passing with a big lead late in the 4th quarter.  The Packers are the best team in the NFC and they're getting points - that won't happen agin this year - take advantage.  

Arizona has a new coach and they're on the road.  St. Louis isn't anything special but they should be able to handle Arizona at home and end their opening game losing streak.

I told Mr. Pig that maybe Sean Payton is going to return to the NFL, after being suspended for a year in Bountygate, with a vengeance and might be looking to smash everything in his way, it happens to be the Falcons.  Drew Brees threw a career-high 5 interceptions last game vs Atlanta.

In the contest, four guys are already below 10,000 units (20,000 to start) and one of them is around 2000 and nearly out.  We're currently tied for third after going 4-1 yesterday, but that means nothing right now.

Pittsburgh -6.5 2200 LOSS

Green Bay +4.5 2200 LOSS

St. Louis -4 1100
New Orleans -3 1100 WIN

New Coaches on the Road

The contest is off to a fast start with several guys throwing caution to the wind and placing all max bets.  One guy is already down half his units to 10,000.

We're taking a more conservative approach and wagering 1100 to win 1000.

We like all the following college matchups with new coaches playing on the road for the first time, Idaho already played on the road and didn't cover the point spread.

Auburn -10.5
Illinois +8.5
Wyoming -28
Stanford -25.5
Nebraska -28
Michigan State -23

UPDATE:

Auburn -10.5 WIN 2000
Illinois +8.5 WIN 1000
Wyoming -28 WIN 1000
Stanford -24.5 LOSS 1100
Nebraska -28 WIN 1000
Michigan State -23 MISSED GAMETIME WOULD HAVE LOST

First Meeting and College Football Week 2 Preview

Mr. Pig and I had our first business meeting last night.  Mr. Pig seems reassured that I haven't lost my mind after discussing changes I thought we needed to make last week.  We're on the same page, but we have to use more discretion with our traditional model is the only point I was making.  Trends can be extremely helpful when betting but a trend is a generalization.  The one change I've been suggesting is that we bet more aggressively the situation that we like and lay off loser teams and coaches.  We obviously picked too many losers last year, but sometimes I felt like a moron watching a game I was going to lose having chosen to rely on Norv Turner.  I like underdogs, and I like favorites, but I don't like teams and coaches that find ways to lose.

The football contest begins tonight, all units are restocked, everyone is even, and talk is cheap.  The number of participants in the contest has jumped to 73 and I'm not surprised.

We don't like Denver or Baltimore tonight or any college games so we're holding off for the weekend.  For college this weekend we're looking at:

Auburn
Illinois
Wyoming
Stanford
Nebraska
Michigan State
Tennessee

We might lay off Tennessee and Nebraska, but we're looking into it.  Official picks to come Saturday morning.

Update:
Current loser coaches in the NFL I was referring to:
Garrett
Frazier
Munchak
Dennis Allen
Schwartz
Marvin Lewis

Might be nice guys, but I ain't wagering my units on those dudes.

Oakland and Buffalo

Oakland and Buffalo don't even have quarterbacks, so snatching up lines early against both teams seems like a good idea.  The other day it was leaked out of Oakland that Terrell Pryor will be the starting QB.  The fact that the Oakland locker room has more leaks than the Iraqi navy doesn't say good things about the authority of head coach Dennis Allen.  You know he's probably going to be fired so it just shows he has no control and no respect.  Oakland is going to be really bad this year, and I'm already labeling it "the lost year".

Superbowl Prediction

My criteria for winning the Superbowl is having a strong organization, smart coaches, a core group of talented players, and a fearless quarterback who is willing to make passes and handle pressure.

AFC Playoff Teams:

Baltimore

Denver

Indianapolis

New England 

Houston

Pittsburgh

NFC Playoff Teams:

Philadelphia

San Francisco

Seattle

Washington

New Orleans

Green Bay

Superbowl:

New England over Green Bay

AFC South Win Total and Division Predictions

Houston - 10 - UNDER

Last year was the best season in Texans history in a few ways and they won't match it.  This year they'll regress to fighting for the playoffs.  A tough stretch early at Baltimore, against Seattle, and at San Francisco will cripple this shaky team.  

Indianapolis - 8.5 - OVER

Don't be surprised when this team wins the division.  I believe in Andrew Luck and the Colts made improvements where they needed to.  Plus, they have one of the easiest, if not the easiest, schedules in the league this season.

Jacksonville - 5 - UNDER

The Jaguars are a terrible team.  New coaches and lots of new players.  No hope for a good season.  

Tennessee - 6.5 - UNDER

At, or by, the end of the season Jake Locker will be out at QB, Munchak will be fired, and the number of games this team has won - you'll be able to count on one hand.  

Best Bet - Indianapolis OVER

1. Indianapolis 11-6

2. Houston 9-7

3. Tennessee 4-12

4. Jacksonville 3-13

    

NFC North Win Total and Division Predictions

Chicago - 8.5 - UNDER

The offense did not bring in any help, besides new coaches, during the offseason and that was their biggest need. The defense can't be as good as it was last year. Jay Cutler and a new head coach from the CFL don't inspire confidence.

Detroit - 7.5 - UNDER
Detroit has a core of stars and not much else.  The Lions only won 4 games last year and they will improve on that but are they going to be in a fight for a playoff spot with this roster?  Definitely not.

Green Bay - 10 - OVER
The Packers are in the midst of a dominating run in the NFC North and this total will look low in hindsight.  Run to the betting counter and bet with both fists.

Minnesota - 7.5 - UNDER
Can't count on repeat amazing seasons from Adrian Peterson, so I think Minnesota will regress because I don't have faith in Ponder.  You can't expect wins when your QB is worse than 15 out of 16 opponents.

Best bet - Green Bay OVER

1. Green Bay 13-3
2. Chicago 7-9
3. Minnesota 6-10
4. Detroit 5-11

New NFL Head Coaches Week 1

Here's an article from NFP about how new NFL head coaches fare week 1.  (click here for link)

Basically, if you just wager blindly you'll lose your money over the long haul.  

AFC North Win Total and Division Predictions

Baltimore - 8.5 - OVER
The schedule looks like it has a few extra wins built in, so that's the determining factor here.  Baltimore is a strong organization and has good players and coaches.

Cincinnati - 8.5 - OVER
QB pressure is the deciding factor in this OVER.  The Bengals defense can create pressure and they have six games vs young QBs.

Cleveland - 6 - UNDER
Front office power struggles, new coaches, and young skill players.

Pittsburgh - 9 - OVER
Once again a team in this division benefits from an easy schedule.  Pittsburgh didn't get better but they have a solid defense and a good QB.  

Best bet - Cleveland UNDER

1. Pittsburgh 11-5
2. Baltimore 10-6
3. Cincinnati 9-7
4. Cleveland 4-12

NFC East Win Totals and Division Predictions

New York Giants - 9 - UNDER
The Giants didn't get better this off-season, unless you count recovering from serious injuries, which I don't count as a positive.  They play in a tough division.  Can Coughlin inspire Eli and the boys to play well for him one last time?  Doubtful.  7-9 or 8-8 seem more likely than 10-6, or 9-7 to PUSH.

Dallas Cowboys - 8.5 - UNDER
The Dallas Cowboys, from Jerry Jones to the coaches to the players, are defined by their ability to make bad decisions and they excel at finding ways to lose.

Philadelphia - 7 - OVER
The Eagles have talent on the field and they made a great decision to hire an innovative coach, so I think 10 wins is entirely possible.

Washington - 8 - OVER
If RG3 stays healthy they are a Superbowl contender.  

Best bet - Philadelphia OVER 7

1. Washington 11-5
2. Philadelphia 9-7
3. New York 8-8
4. Dallas 5-11

AFC East Win Total and Division Predictions

Buffalo - 6.5 - UNDER
This season will most likely put team owner Ralph Wilson into the grave.  New coaches, rookie QB, and few talented players.

Miami - 7.5 - UNDER
Easy pick.  The schedule is tougher than it looks and this team doesn't have the coaching or talent to go 8-8.

New York Jets - 6.5 - UNDER
The undoing of the team assembled under the Man-genius will be completed this season.  By the end of the season Rex Ryan will be fired, Sanchez will be benched, and the defense will be asked to do too much.

New England - 11.5 - OVER
Brady. Belichick.  I think it's more likely that they go 16-0 than UNDER 12 wins.  AFC Superbowl favorites. 

Best bet:

1. New England 14-2
2. Miami 5-11
3. Jets 4-12
4. Buffalo 3-13

AFC West Win Totals and Division Prediction

Denver - 11.5 - UNDER
I think 11 wins is the best this team can hope for.  John Fox should have been fired immediately after taking a knee in the 4th quarter and playing for overtime against Baltimore in the playoffs.  It was so stupid I just have a bad taste in my mouth from this team.  Plus, they're the Superbowl favorite, so the only place to go is down.  I'm not buying into this team.

San Diego - 7.5 - OVER
With new head coach Mike McCoy and OC Ken Whisenhunt I think the offense will be just fine, and I think a bounce-back season for Rivers is likely.  The defense didn't fix it's biggest problem - cornerback, and that is what stops me from thinking this team can win 10 games.  An 8-8, maybe 9-7, seems reasonable.

Kansas City - 7 - OVER
Out with Romeo Crennell and Matt Cassell/Brady Quinn and in with Andy Reid and Alex Smith.  Huge improvement, and with Jamaal Charles and a talented defense the Chiefs will surprise people this year.

Oakland - 5.5 - UNDER
This is probably the least talented team in the NFL.  There's already a plan in motion to tank this season.  Nobody has any idea what to do.  

Best bet: Oakland UNDER

1. Denver 10-6
2. San Diego 9-7
3. Kansas City 8-8
4. Oakland 1-15

NFC South Win Total Predictions

The NFC South contains average teams and Superbowl pretenders.

Atlanta - 10 - UNDER
Atlanta was lucky last season and overachieved. They've put a lot of pressure on themselves this season with the Superbowl-or-bust attitude, so if things get off to a slow start, which they likely will given the first four opponents, it could be tough to recover. 8-9 wins seems possible, and likely missing the playoffs.

Tampa Bay - 7.5 - OVER
I don't like Greg Schiano as an NFL coach.  I think his defensive coaching philosophy is flawed because stopping the pass is more important than stopping the run.  However, I think this team can win 8-9 games this year as long as Revis is 100%.  If Revis not 100%, the total will go UNDER.  Schiano will be gone after next season.

Carolina - 7.5 - UNDER
Only a fool would think that a team that will fire it's head coach during the season would win 8 or more games.  Ron Rivera is a terrible NFL head coach.  Mike Shula is not the right coach for Cam Newton.  Carolina fans will probably spend the season yelling at their televisions.  If they fire Rivera early enough then the under could be in jeopardy.

New Orleans - 9 - OVER
The defense will improve even though Rob Ryan is switching a 3-4.  The offense should improve too with Payton's return.  Brees and Payton should be able to out-gun enough teams to win 10 games.  

Best bet: Carolina UNDER

1. New Orleans 10-6
2. Atlanta 9-7
3. Tampa Bay 8-8
4. Carolina 6-10

NFC West Win Total & Division Predictions

The NFC West division has two Superbowl contenders and two bad teams.

Arizona 5.5 - UNDER

"You gotta laugh to keep from crying" said Larry Fitzgerald last year, and it won't get much better this year.  There's no hope for this team. Improvement at QB doesn't make up for getting worse at every other position and combine that with an entirely new coaching staff and this team may only win two games.

San Francisco 11.5 - OVER

12 wins is a lot of wins, but this team is stacked and the coaching staff remaining unchanged provides continuity.  No weaknesses.

St. Louis 7.5 - UNDER

I can't see the Rams getting 8 wins with such inexperienced offensive skill players and a mediocre secondary with a new defensive coordinator.  Jeff Fisher is overrated.  If the Rams win 8 games with this roster I'll take that back.

Seattle 10.5 - OVER
They have a new defensive coordinator and any drop-off makes them a much less dangerous team.  Best secondary in the league and solid front seven, but any injuries or suspensions, and problems could arise.  Russell Wilson is a good young QB but NFL coaches are smart and they'll figure out ways to give him a hard time.  Too much could go wrong with Pete Carroll, but I'm going OVER and ignoring my gut, which is tearing open with screams of UNDER UNDER UNDER.


Best bet: St. Louis UNDER

1. San Francisco 14-2
2. Seattle 11-6
3. St. Louis 4-12
4. Arizona 3-13

NFL Regular Season Over/Under Win Totals

Here are the totals from the LVH SuperBook from when I was there last week, so I'll use that as a reference:

Arizona 5.5

Atlanta 10

Baltimore 8.5
Bufflao 6.5
Carolina 7.5
Chicago 8.5
Cincinnati 8.5
Cleveland 6
Dallas 8.5
Denver 11.5
Detroit 7.5
Green Bay 10
Houston 10
Indianapolis 8.5
Jacksonville 5
Kansas City 7
Miami 7.5
Minnesota 7.5
New England 11.5
New Orleans 9
Giants 9
Jets 6.5
Oakland 5.5
Philadelphia 7
Pittsburgh 9
San Diego 7.5
San Francisco 11.5
Seattle 10.5 

St. Louis 7.5 

Tampa Bay 7.5
Tennessee 6.5
Washington 8 

Results

After a crazy Superbowl the pool is finally over.  I haven't checked the standings much since Mr. Pig and I went bust because we put a lot of effort into our bets and I hated that we were eliminated.  Anyways the final standings look like this:

1st - 136,527
2nd - 103,799
3rd - 100,917
10th - 39,189

We all started with 20,000 units and I am absolutely astonished at the final totals - why aren't these people out in Vegas making a run at it?!?

I'm sure the contest will be bigger next year and I welcome the challenge, so I can't wait until next year.  I'll resume writing when football starts back up again.

Be well.