Elimination

We've been eliminated from the pool.  The Giants watched RG3 pistol whip them and our units are gone.  Sports usually end with interviews so I'll interview myself, actually I'm imagining Suzy Kolber shoving a microphone in my face.

Q: How does it feel to be eliminated?

A: I'm disappointed that we're out, make no mistake about that.  I'm not angry and I certainly don't feel bitter in any way.  We lost fair and square.  Going into this we knew that being eliminated and losing our money was a possibility.

Q: Weren't you very confident that you would win?

A: Yes.  In order to succeed you must believe that you can.  I honestly believed that we could and would win, and it wasn't a false confidence because I wouldn't have entered if I didn't honestly believe we could win.

Q: Presupposing that you would be eliminated, are you surprised that it was this early?

A: Yes and no.  We could have held on for several more weeks - until the end of the season even, but when e got into the endgame we thought our best strategy was to go all-in with max bets and hopefully win a couple in a row to double up and give us some breathing room.  We could have bet small and died a slow death and held on but that seemed futile.  There are already people doing that.  Several people have had below 5000 for weeks and they are only delaying the inevitable.  The goal is to cash and we thought that being aggressive gave us the best possible chance.  When you get down to 10000 you are in serious trouble we thought.

Before putting the last bet on the Giants I scouted next week and didn't see anything that looked too appealing.  I have no regrets about going all in with the Giants.  I probably would have had regrets if we were eliminated betting on a bad team simply because our model spit them out.

Q: How would you rate the system you used?

A: Too soon to tell.  The answer to that requires a serious analysis of the bets we placed and I have no motivation to do that at this time.  However, I will say this about that.  Having an system, no matter what it is, is helpful because it helps to keep things more objective and your not just picking on whims, which I don't think would be a successful long term strategy.

Q: What would you do differently next time?

A: I would try and pick less losers.  Our final record was 113-99-5, so we had 53.3% winners.  I think that we started out too conservatively.  Just musing right now, if we conservatively worked our way up to 30000, then bet more aggressively, but if we fell to 20000 to be conservatively again - that might be something to consider, who knows.  I also think I would try and avoid more bad teams and loser coaches, it is frustrating to say -Why did we bet on Norv Turner? Or Jim Schwartz? Or some other dope.  Good teams and coaches come at a premium point spread so it's tough to say that though.  Being more judicious could be good or bad - you can't make 50K only wagering 10K, so there's no easy answers.  The best advice anyone could give is don't bet on the NFL, but if you do make sure it's money you can afford to lose.

Q: Are you upset about the money you lost?

A: Of course it's disappointing but that's gambling.  There is a definite feeling of satisfaction, or something honorable, knowing that people I know or people who I know know are going to walk away with the money, that some casino or other faceless person or corporation won't end up with my entry fee.  Well, I suppose they probably will eventually.

Q: How do you feel about the partnership with Mr. Pig?

A: Mr. Pig is one of my best buddies and the older we get the more people we seem to lose touch with.  This contest brought Mr. Pig into my life on pretty much a daily basis by talking to him directly, emailing, texting, or tweeting.  We had our disagreements, but anything that brings you closer to the people you care about is good.  The best part was strategizing and thinking together, sharpening our minds.  We created goodness in each other's lives and our own good was divided and increased.  We demonstrated our humanity to the highest degree - we used our reason and intellect to make predictions in a competition to prove our superiority, and we did the most human thing possible - we made an error.   We foolishly believed that we could make sense of and find order in the chaos.  Gambling on football is a microcosm of life and nobody can predict what is going to happen.

Q: So you're going to give up gambling on football?

A: I will never stop gambling on football because giving up doesn't suit me.  I always think that I can do better next time, just a few tweaks to my system and I'll have it right.  Using your mind, cultivating goodness in each other, taking risks, and never giving up - that's what life is all about.

Even if you break it down strictly to economics it was a great investment.  Going to the movies costs about $12, so per hour entertainment is $6.  $250 kept me entertained for 3 months, so that's not even $3 per day!

Q:  Last question, how are you going to fill the void and occupy your time?

A: Suzy, I love your hair, best hair on television.
 

Do or Die

This could be it.  But it won't be.  We are wagering all of our bankroll and going all-in on the New York Giants.  The Redskins have won 2 division games in a row, scored over 30 points, and covered the spread in both.  Solid play on the Giants.  This is going to be a sweat and I might have a heart attack.  If we lose we will double our roll and will have a decent shot next week to make more.  If we lose this bet we will be eliminated from the pool.

This is the second time we've had all our money riding.  Yesterday at one it was all on the line with Buffalo and Carolina.  We split those games, but we've been to the edge and looked down.  I want to say that I'm calm but I'm not.  I am nervously excited and pretty confident.

Index
Giants -3 5332 (every last unit)

Tragedy in Kansas City

Crazy story in Kansas City, very unfortunate.  I slipped in a bet on Carolina at -3 and it's going up now.  Like Mr. Pig said to me yesterday "give a team a reason to quit and they'll quit".  Sounds about right to me.  I'm a little surprised they're playing the game.

The other game we're betting at 1 pm is Buffalo.  Jacksonville is coming off 3 straight division games and is now playing on the road.  Buffalo should have no trouble.

We're down to about 11000 so if we lose these two max bets we are out of the pool.  If we win we could be on our way to an epic comeback.

If we win these games we're going to take San Diego at 425 pm.  They've lost 3 in a row and Cincinnati has won 3 in a row.  Streaks don't last.

The Eagles as a double-digit underdog tonight is tempting, but we'll see.

Index
Buffalo -6 5500
Carolina -3 5500
San Diego pending

College

We're laying low this weekend and playing our best plays aggressively.  The only plays I'm considering today are Texas against a Kansas State team that just lost their first game.  Actually, I'd also consider Oklahoma State.  I would also consider the Nebraska/Wisconsin UNDER, but will likely sit out.

Lucky 13

Going into this week we have the least units we've had all year and we're frustrated with losing.  We've decided to look at all the plays and go max on the best possible ones.  We need to make 20K to get a reasonable shot at this thing and we figure going 4-0 max betting is easier than something like going 20-10 with the amount we had been wagering.  Picking the strongest plays and being aggressive is our new strategy.  Who knows maybe we'll realize that's what we should have been doing anyways.  The hard part is figuring out which plays are the strongest.  The risk is the clear downside - if we're cold then we're done, out, finished, no more bets, see you next year.    22 people have been eliminated so far, hopefully we're not going to meet that fate.

MNF: Carolina at Philly

There's reasons to play both sides in this terrible matchup.  Carolina we had pegged to cover some games in the second half and Philly is on a losing streak so that's a reason to take the Eagles.  However, the most peculiar thing about this game is the line itself.  The game is in Philadelphia but Carolina is favored.  When was the last time a 2-8 team was favored going into the Link or Veterans' stadium to play an Andy Reid coached team?  I'm guessing never.  And even though Philly's starting QB and RB are out they still should be favored, however, the writing is on the wall and it seems like the team has quit on Andy Reid.  They're cleaning house in Philly and it's already started.  That said, Philly has talented players and it's Monday night so anything can happen.  Best bet is to lay off, but if you held a gun to my head I'd say take Carolina and/or the under, but it wouldn't surprise me if Foles lit up a Carolina defense that was taking him too lightly.  He averaged 352 yards in the PAC-12 last year.  

And by the way, we've tumbled to 25th place with 16832, so we have some serious coming back to do.  As long as we have arms we will fight.  Count on that.    

New York Giants

The Giants have to stop the bleeding - we're hemorrhaging betting units.  After this weekend all I can say is good thing I didn't bet my life savings.  We're not done yet though.  All long as we still have some shares we're still alive.

Green Bay is on a 5 game win streak.  That ends tonight.

Index
Giants -3 3300

Save a Prayer for Sunday

Yesterday we got murdered in college football.  We tumbled in the standings to 21st.  We need a good day in the NFL.  So, here's how we plan to make our money back.

Miami has lost 3 in a row and Seattle is a good go-against on the road.

Oakland is catching over a touchdown in Cincinnati.  Hopefully Carson Palmer has been focused this week because he is returning to the team he abandoned.  Oakland has lost 3 in a row so I think the whole team should be focused.

Tampa Bay has won 4 in a row and Matt Ryan threw 5 interceptions last week so we like Atlanta to light up Tampa.

Jacksonville has lost many games in a row but took Houston to overtime last week so there's some hope with the QB change.

Baltimore has won 3 in a row and is in the middle of a Pittsburgh sandwich traveling to San Diego so we like the Chargers.

This might sound crazy but we like the Chiefs against Denver.  Kansas City has lost 7 in a row and Denver has won 5 and scored 30+ points a few times, so all that we know says to take the double-digit home underdog.

We like Arizona because they've lost 6 in a row and they probably can't even go for a burrito without being laughed at in Arizona.

Index
Miami +3
Oakland +8.5
Atlanta -1.5
Jacksonville +3.5
San Diego 0
Kansas City +10 (waiting til gametime for more points)
Arizona tbd

Old Oaken Bucket

We have some serious ground to make up on the leaders of the pool.  The leader is around 100000 right now and we are only at 40000, so it's time to make some moves.

Miami just self-imposed a bowl ban for this year, so that's the worst possible news for this young football team.  We like Duke at home today.

We like Rice because a UTEP receiver was arrested for weapon charges and is also being charged with making a terrorist threat.  Can't see UTEP playing well with their starting receiver on the way to Guantanamo.

In the letdown game of all letdown games we like UCLA at home against Stanford.  Stanford has taken down both Oregon State and Oregon in the last two weeks.  

Oregon's national title hopes took a serious blow last week, so we're taking Oregon State at home with the points and assuming they'll letdown.

We also like Wisconsin and Indiana.

Index

Oregon St +10 3300

Duke +6.5 3300

Rice +1 3300  

UCLA +3 3300

Wisconsin +2 3300

Indiana +5.5 3300

Thanksgiving Football

What's more American than Thanksgiving and gambling on football?

Today we like Detroit at home vs Houston.  Houston has won 3 in a row and the last two must have taken their toll - Chicago on Monday night and a crazy game vs Jacksonville last week.  A short thanksgiving week on the road is the perfect place for them to let down.

The Patriots have won 4 in a row and scored a lot, 59 last week.  The Jets have been unusually quiet this week, which lead me to believe that they're really focusing on this game and I think last week's win in St. Louis gave them confidence.  Take the points.

Index
Detroit +3.5 3300 WIN
Jets +7 3300 LOSS

NFL Sunday Pre-Thanksgiving

After a tough day in college yesterday we're looking to make some positive gains today.  We like the Jets because they have lost 3 in a row.  I think it also helps that St Louis played an extra quarter of a game against a tough, physical 49ers team last week.  If St Louis comes out flat today we will stay away from the 49ers tomorrow night.

We like Cleveland going into Dallas this week.  This is the time of year when young teams start to play better or at least cover the spread since they've now had half a season to work together.  Dallas doesn't play well at home so we like Cleveland to at least cover a TD.

Carolina is a team we will probably looking to bet a lot in the second half this season.  Tampa Bay has won 3 in a row and we always love picking against 3 streaks.

New England is playing the Colts at home today and I expect this one to get ugly.  Rookie coach and rookie QB on the road against a Patriots team that gave up 30+ points last week means bad news for Colts fans.  Colts have won 4 in a row and they are due for a huge letdown.

We like Arizona today to cover a big number against Atlanta who is coming off their first loss.  Arizona has lost 5 in a row and they'll turn that around today.

We like Detroit today because Green Bay is on a 4 game win streak and we think Detroit is going to win this game at home outright.

Denver has to let down at some point.  They've looked unstoppable winning 4 in a row.  San Diego should get revenge for the Monday night meltdown today.

Baltimore is going to beat Pittsburgh in the night game.  Pittsburgh has won 4 in a row and they are starting Byron Leftwich.  The wise guys are all over Pittsburgh here, but that doesn't scare us. (Line can be had at 3 unfortunately we took at 3.5)

Index
Jets +3.5 3300
Cleveland +7.5 3300
Carolina +1.5 3300
New England -9.5 3300
Arizona +9.5 3300
Detroit +3 3300
San Diego +7.5 3300
Baltimore -3.5 3300

Saturday College Football

Our plays below are based on public perception versus our own statistics based analysis and ranking.  The public has overvalued the teams we're betting against and the lines are favorable to where we think they should be.  Hopefully most of these play out just like UNC did Thursday night with the publicly overvalued team getting crushed.  

Index
Cincinnati -6.5 3200
Virginia Tech -10 3200
South Florida +7 3200
Rice +3.5 3200
Troy +3 3200
Tulane +9.5 3200
Wisconsin -2.5 3200
Oklahoma -11 3200
Syracuse +5 3200

North Carolina at Virginia

We're laying off the NFL tonight.  Even though Buffalo has lost 3 in a row, a situation we like to bet for, Miami got destroyed by Tennessee last week, so they're in a favorable betting situation too - lost by 25+ including the spread.  So that is a no play, we'll just hope people ahead of us go the wrong way.  Speaking of which, we are in 10th place currently with 44, 487.  The leader has 81,900, 21 people have 20,000+, and 20 are out with a few more soon to join them in betting shame.  Due to the gap that is between us and the leaders we decided to up our bets 1%.  We have time but this thing is essentially more than half over.  We are not confident in our model for the NFL playoffs and we think the NFL playoffs can be pretty unpredictable, so we're stepping it up slightly now so we don't have to make desperation bets later, something we are very much looking forward to avoiding.  I believe we can win.  We have  solid list for Saturday's games and I'm confident, but that means nothing, or does it?  Either way check back Saturday morning.

For tonight's college game we like North Carolina.  Virginia is all of a sudden a sexy pick for no good reason.  North Carolina is a much better team, we have them ranked much higher in our rankings and to get UNC at -3 is a good value.  UNC defense gave up 68 to Georgia Tech last week so you have to figure they were tuned in at practice this week and will be looking to shut down Virginia.

Index

UNC -3 3200 WIN

MNF: KC at Pittsburgh

We're in 11th place with 44486, which means we had a positive week, and makes it easier to sit out tonight if that is the right play.  If we take anything tonight we like the UNDER, but we won't take it at less than 41.  We're going to wait until just before kickoff to see how high the public pushes it, so far it's actually gone down.  41+ or we're sitting out.

Veterans Days NFL Football

I would like to show my gratitude for veterans by demonstrating my freedom and gambling on football.  

Today we like Cincinnati because they're on a 3 game skid and the Giants are still recovering from Sandy and they're going on vacation next week.  They have to take care of the pets and pick up the dry cleaning - they're not focused on football.  Hopefully.

Carolina is going to be a second half cover machine in our view and that makes them a good bet today because Denver has been playing very well winning 3 in a row and scoring 30+ points.  They cool off today on a trip to the east coast.

New Orleans should finally give Atlanta their first loss today.  Atlanta doesn't play as well on the road and they've won 8 games in a row.

Detroit has marked this game on the calendar because they lost at home to Minnesota earlier this year and they lost ugly too, giving up 2 special teams TDs.  They have a bad taste in their mouths.

We like Chicago to snap their winning streak against Houston.  Chicago's schedule has been a creampuff and this week they have a much tougher opponent and they're on national tv, which always makes me nervous about which team Smokin Jay Cutler will throw the ball to.

Dallas seems to be a good bet today because Philly is collapsing.  Andy Reid is checked out and the offensive line is going to get Mike Vick killed.  They have talented players on Philly, unlike Jacksonville, and that they are playing this bad tells you something.  They quit - that's what it tells me.

Tampa Bay has won 2 games in a row and scored a lot of points so we like San Diego.

Our model spit out KC and St Louis but we have a hard time taking those teams - KC in general and St Louis because they're playing at San Francisco.  Double digit spreads in the NFL cover blindly at 54%, so there's that.

Update
We're taking St Louis and Buffalo.  St Louis because they have lost 3 in a row.  Buffalo because we got +13.5 and people in our pool will be all over New England and we need to go against the herd to win this thing.

Index
Cincinnati +4.5 2300 WIN
Carolina +3.5 2650 LOSS
New Orleans +1.5 2300 WIN
Detroit -3 2300 LOSS
Dallas -2 2300 WIN
Buffalo +13.5 2300 WIN
St Louis +13 2300 WIN
San Diego +3 2300 LOSS
Houston +1 2300 WIN

Post-Election Saturday College Football

We need some win today because we've been cold of late.  We haven't been severely damaged because of our betting strategy and money management.  I cannot stress how important it is to manage your bankroll and bet accordingly.  When you gamble you will lose.  Simple as that.  So you must be able to survive cold streaks.

South Carolina is in a good spot today.  Arkansas is just plain awful.  SC has had 2 weeks to prepare.  With Lattimore going down other players will step up and play harder.  

NC State is in a good spot because they got smashed at home last week and should redeem themselves this week.    

Oklahoma has marked the calendar for this game.  Last year, Baylor and RG3 beat OK as 16.5 underdogs, shocking OK for their first win in this series in at least 10 years.  OK will be ready and be looking to pound this team, who no longer has RG3.

A couple of players were dismissed from Southern Miss this week and that's a situation we always like to pick against, so SMU should easily cover.

Purdue hasn't been very competitive in Big 10 play and Iowa is significantly better according to our rankings.

Fresno State and Nevada should be a shootout.  both teams prepared to score a lot and that exactly what should happen.  Taking the over.

Northwestern has this Michigan game marked on the calendar after the beatdown they took last year.

We have Miami ranked about 30 spots better than Virginia.  People think Miami is down but they lost a close one at UNC and other losses were to very good teams - ND, FSU, and KSU - and they beat everyone else.  And Virginia won in Miami last year as 13.5 underdogs.  Miami isn't overlooking this game and they're better.

This is Louisville's first road game in nearly a month and they are very overrated.  Somehow they are undefeated still.  That ends today.  Syracuse in the dome.

Texas Tech is angry and looking to beat someone up today.  TT gets back on track against a terrible Kansas team.

Navy will beat Troy.  Last week against a big opponent in Tennessee (big for Troy), Troy went wild.  They shredded the Tennessee defense for 721 yards and 30 first downs.  So, today, on a historic day and a historic game they will be outplayed by Navy.

Oregon State has suffered tough losses to Stanford during the Andrew Luck era.  That era is over.  Time for payback.

Texas A&M is a high powered flashy offense with a QB named Johnny Football.  Are you for real?  Johnny Football?  We love Alabama, the number 1 defense in college football, to shut down this Johnny Football kid.  Roll Tide.

Index
UConn +3.5 2300 (Friday) WIN

South Carolina -14 2300 WIN

NC State -9.5 2300 WIN

Oklahoma -20.5 2300 LOSS

SMU -14.5 2300 WIN

Iowa -5 2300 LOSS

Fresno-Nevada Over 69 2300 WIN

Northwestern +8.5 2300 WIN
Miami +2 2300 WIN
Syracuse +2 2300 WIN
Texas Tech -24 2300 LOSS
Navy -2 2300 LOSS

Oregon State +4 2300 PUSH
Alabama -14 2300 LOSS

Thursday Night Special

We like Jacksonville tonight, believe it or not. We've got a losing streak vs a winning streak. Andrew Luck set the single game rookie passing record last week. The Colts won an emotional game last week with their sick coach showing up in the locker room. Colts have got to letdown tonight on a short week on the road. Jacksonville doesn't get any chances to play on the spotlight or chances to actually win a game.

Index
Jacksonville +3.5 2650 LOSS

Philadelphia at New Orleans

After a bad Sunday we've fallen out of the top 10, for the first time in many weeks.  It would be nice to get some back tonight but we're not doing anything crazy like a degenerate would.  We like the Eagles tonight because they're on a 3 game losing streak.  They called a players-only meeting, which always makes me chuckle a little, but at least we know they're motivated.  However, it also means that panic is setting in, so it's a big game.  Haven't heard much from New Orleans players this week, but the news coming out of the bayou is that the NFL voided Sean Payton's contract, so his future with the Saints is uncertain, to say the least.  Currently at 2-5, I'd say New Orleans has not responded well post-Bountygate, so I think it makes the Philly side stronger, but not enough to bet more because New Orleans did get spanked by Denver last week on Sunday night.

Index
Philly +3 2500 LOSS

Sunday Night Football

We love Dallas tonight.  Atlanta has won 7 games in a row and are way overdue for a loss.  We're getting 4 points so we don't even need to win.

Index
Dallas +4 3200 LOSS

Post-Sandy Football Sunday

We cancelled out any advantages Pittsburgh and NY Giants had this week.

Here's are the picks, not much time for a write up today:

Baltimore - smashed by Houston before bye, only laying 3.5 to much worse team.
Cincinnati - 3 game losing streak, DEN is due to letdown
Arizona - GB has won 3 in a row
Buffalo - Buffalo should be able to cver double digits
Carolina - 5 game losing streak might end today
Indy - Miami is going to letdown
Tennessee - Bears are due for a loss

Index
Baltimore -3.5 2800 WIN
Cincinnati +4.5 3200 LOSS
Arizona +10 2800 LOSS
Buffalo +10 2800 LOSS
Carolina +3 2800 WIN
Indy +1.5 2800 WIN
Tennessee +4.5 3200 LOSS

Armageddon

Tonight is probably the biggest college game of the year so far with Alabama visiting LSU, but more on that later.  We're in 8th place going into today's action and we have a good list of games.

Mississippi State, Florida, and Oregon State all lost for the first time last week so we're picking against them.  Out of all these matchups we especially like Texas A&M and we got it early in the week at -6.

Notre Dame should be looking for some style points today against Pitt and 3 Pitt players got into some legal trouble this week so that made it an easy pick.  Some Idaho players got dismissed from the team as well so they should get smashed also.

We took Oregon early in the week because we think they're much better than USC.  This is a pretty big game too, but definitely overshadowed by Alabama-LSU.  In the big game we like LSU because they were embarrassed in the national championship game 21-0 and they didn't gain 100 yards offensively, they barely crossed the 50 yard line.  So they should be ultra focused playing a home game at night in Death Valley and coming off a bye week.

Update
We're kicking ourselves for not getting in on LSU earlier when it was 9.5.  Why did we wait?  Greed.  We wanted 10, but should have realized the line was soft.  Most of the money has been coming in on Alabama, allegedly, yet the line went down to 7.5, so if you believe that there's only one possibly explanation.  Sportsbooks are hedging their bets because they know that LSU us the right side.  Nobody knows more about each side of a game than oddsmakers.  Nobody.  It's their job to know everything.  When a line looks off - it's you that doesn't know everything.  I'm still confident in the 7.5 but wish we had 2 more points.  We were not sharp on this one.  Square, very square.

We're also taking Indiana.  Free pick from a trusted associate that we trust, blindly.

Index
Texas A&M -6 2800 WIN
Missouri +16 2800 WIN
Arizona State +3.5 2800 LOSS
Notre Dame -17 2800 LOSS
San Jose State -19 2800 WIN
Oregon -7.5 2800 WIN
LSU -7.5 2800 WIN
Indiana -2 2800 WIN

Eastern Michigan

I didn't realized Eastern Michigan and Ohio kicked off so early because we took E. Michigan early in the week because we liked the line.  Ohio just lost it's first game so they should letdown.  They're not a national title contender but getting to 7-0 is still a nice little feat.

Index

Eastern Michigan +17 2800

MNF: San Francisco at Arizona

We like Arizona tonight because they've lost 3 in a row.  It's also in Arizona and they're getting points.  Lastly, the 49ers have a bye next week and teams going on vacation have mostly not played well.

Index

Arizona +7 3000 LOSS

NFL on the Eve of Hurricane Sandy

As the east coast braces for Hurricane Sandy Mr. Pig and I are working on our Sunday picks.  We like Philly at home against an undefeated Atlanta team.  This pick is actually quite popular with gamblers, which somewhat surprises me, but clearly nobody believes Atlanta is as good as their 6-0 record would indicate.

We like Carolina on a 4 game losing streak against Chicago on a 4 game win streak and Monday night letdown.  We've been waiting for the line to move in our direction but haven't seen much action.  

New Orleans just got a suspended coach back and are playing on the road so we like Denver.  

The Giants have won 3 in a row, but I'm nervous about Dallas, Mr. Pig will have to talk me into it. (We're off this game)

Phillip Rivers set a personal turnover record vs Denver and San Diego blew the last two games and had a bye to think about what they did.

The Jets are going on bye and beat Miami in Miami earlier this year.  Revenge game for Miami?  Possibly.  I like that Jets are going on bye, teams have not played well this year about to go on vacation.

Kansas City has lost 3 in a row, so we think they can rebound against Oakland.

We also like New England in London vs St Louis.  The Rams are not as good a people think.

Index

Philadelphia -3 3000 LOSS

Carolina +7.5 3500 WIN

Denver -6 2500 WIN

San Diego -3 2500 LOSS
Kansas City -1 2500 LOSS
New England -6.5 2500 WIN
Miami +1 2500 WIN

  

Rolling the Dice

We have one play today that our model spit out.  Wyoming's coach got suspended for a post game rant after the Air Force game and he got suspended this week against Boise State, so we love Boise State to smash an emotionally confused Wyoming team.

All the other other plays fall under a different category.  We're using a somewhat new system today, which I'll explain later, only if it's successful because if it's not we're not using it again. Here's the action:

Index
Boise State -16.5 4000 WIN
Indiana +2 2500 WIN
Maryland +3 2500 PUSH
Texas A&M -14 2500 WIN
Alabama -23.5 2500 WIN
Arizona +5 WIN

Keg of Nails

We're on Nevada tonight because Air Force has a big game next week at Army and because we think Nevada is significantly better.

We also like Louisville because Cincinnati suffered their first loss of the season last week.  People aeem to think that losing a non-conference game won't affect them that much, but it does.  Any team that gets to 5-0 starts dreaming - they have to unless they're a bunch of losers, so when that dream of a perfect season is shattered, and shattered it was, they will likely lose again the next week, or at least not cover the point spread.

Index
Nevada -3.5 2500 LOSS
Louisville -4 2500 LOSS

Tuesday Night Football?

As we begin this week, we are in 9th place with 41882 after a backdoor cover on Monday night by Detroit.  The leader has 70635, which is remarkable.  He has 60% winners and we have 58% winners, but he has made fewer bets than us, so it would seem that he has been winning all his big bets an losing all his small bets.  That won't continue.  And being in first place has been a very dangerous position so far.  He could probably sustain his 60% winners, especially if he is being very selective, but I don't think he can continue to hit the bigs and lose the smalls, he'll even out and when he starts losing more bigs he'll come back down a bit.  The 10th spot right behind us has 41438 then there is some separation as 11th has 30000 exactly.

-21 people have 20000 or better.    
-18 are eliminated.
-5 have less than 10000
-11 have less than 15000
-37 have less than the starting amount, out of 58 including eliminated

Tonight we have a little Sun Belt Conference action between Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State.  A game that would probably be only for degenerate gamblers but we found an edge with a little digging.  Ark State beat ULL late last year when the conference title was on the line.  ULL is also better and playing at home on a weird night for football.

Index
ULL -3.5 2500 LOSS

MNF: Detroit at Chicago

A great matchup of bitter foes on Monday night is going to bring out all the bettors who won a good deal of money, or units, this week with the success of the favorites and bettor-friendly teams.  They're going to be on the wrong side tonight though.  Chicago is where all the money will be but Detroit will probably take the game outright.  Chicago is on a 3 game win streak, have won the last two scoring 30+, and last time they played Matthew Stafford threw 4 interceptions, so most people will be betting the favorite.  Mr. Pig and I will be with the Lions - king of the fucking jungle baby RAWR!!!

Index

Detroit +6.5 2700 WIN

NFL Sunday Week 7

We couldn't get ahead in college football yesterday, for every win there was a loss quickly after.  Today we like some home teams. We like the Colts at home because they played very bad last week and Cleveland played very well.

We like Houston because Baltimore has won 4 in a row and they lost their leader in Ray Lewis.

We like Green Bay because QBs that throw 6 TD passes almost always cover the next week and also because underdogs are now undervalued and Green Bay is less than a touchdown favorite against the Rams, who people all of a sudden think are good.

We like Carolina because they're on a losing streak against a Dallas team that is talking about the Super Bowl once again, and that is never good because it creates impossible expectations and that creates pressure.

We like the Giants because Washington swept them last year, they've lost both other division games thus year, RG3 has been getting tons of hype, and they're playing at home.

Index
Houston -6.5 2700 WIN
Green Bay -5.5 2200 WIN
Indianapolis -3 2200 WIN
Carolina +3 2200 LOSS
NY Giants -6 2200 LOSS

Paul Bunyan Trophy

We have a good slate of games today for college football. Our bigger bankroll will have bigger bets. We like Virginia because Wake Forest has been rocked by suspensions for drugs and plenty else. That is very bad for team chemistry. WF issued an open letter to fans of the football team.  It's that bad.

We like Oklahoma State because we think they'll be out for revenge.  Last year, Iowa State ruined their perfect season late in the year.

South Carolina lost for the first time all year last week to LSU, so we expect a letdown against Florida. We like Kansas State for the same reason against West Virginia.  Same for Idaho against LA Tech.

North Carolina has a new coach and still has not covered the point spread in the road this year, so we like Duke.

We added Iowa today because Penn State has been playing really well this season despite all the off-season distractions.  We expect that to start catching up with them.

We are also considering Texas, but haven't put that in yet.

Index
Virginia -3.5 2200 LOSS
OK State -14 2200 WIN
Florida -3 2200 WIN
Kansas State +3 2200 WIN
Duke +11 2200 WIN
Iowa -1.5 2200 LOSS
Idaho +30.5 2200 LOSS

Seattle at San Francisco

We like the favorite tonight even though dogs have been very good to us. Seattle is coming off an upset win against the mighty Patriots. It wasn't an upset to us since we had them, but they're very pleased with themselves. The 49ers are coming off a humiliating defeat at the hands of the Giants at home last week. Short week, home team, coming off a bad loss - we like the Niners.

We put the bet in early this week because we knew it would go up. It did, but we locked in 7.

Index
49ers -7 2200

Week 6 is a Wrap

We won our first max bet on Green Bay Sunday night capping off an epic 9-0 day, winning 11 bets total and no losses.  We were leading the week going into Monday night but decided to lay off because we had no idea what to expect and it ended up being the biggest comeback in Monday night history, so we were essentially right - the game could have gone either way.  We gave up the weekly prize, which I think was very wise because we didn't force bet.  For example, one guy max bet San Diego and the under and lost 11000.  Just plain stupid.  The weekly prize is for suckers, we have our eye on winning the whole thing and we didn't want a setback.  We have 38173 and we're in 8th.  The leader has 53400.  16 people are out.  21 have 20000 or more.    I think we're in great position at this point.  Our bets are going to be significantly bigger this weekend because we're sticking with the plan of betting 5-8% of our stack, so we could see some nice returns.

NFL Sunday Week 6 (UPDATED)

We are currently in 18th because we've been struggling these past two weeks.  A good winning day today would be pumpkin spice.  We have several games on the slate that give us a chance.

We like the Jets to rebound from Monday night's loss against an emotionally spent Colts team. Last week they won for their coach who was diagnosed with leukemia. This week they should let down. The Jets have also lost 2 home games in a row and are playing a fairly odd third home game in a row, so we like them even more to really show up before they're booed out of town and relocated to Los Angeles.

Buffalo's defense has been absolutely terrible. We like them to turn it around this week against Arizona's terrible offense.

We're also going to bet against some streaks. Minnesota and Baltimore have won 3 in a row and Houston has won 5 in a row. Detroit and Tampa Bay have lost 3 and Cleveland has lost 5 in a row. Atlanta has won 5 in a row but Oakland is a new coach going cross country, so were off that one.

We like Seattle because New England has won 2 in a row scoring 30+. Seattle has the best defense in the league. Everyone in the pool will be taking the Patriots so we see a value opportunity here to up our bet because we know we're going to be betting against the crowd, so a chance to make up ground.

We have reasons to take both sides of Giants at 49ers so we're laying off, but there's a lot going on there. 49ers have been really hot, too hot even. But they're also looking for playoff revenge, so it's a no-play.

Index
Detroit +3.5 1450 WIN
Tampa -4 1450 WIN
Cleveland +1.5 1450 WIN
Buffalo +5 1450 WIN
Seattle +3.5 1700 WIN
Seattle +4 1450 WIN
Washington +1 1450 WIN
Green Bay +3.5 1450
Jets -3.5 1700 WIN
Dallas +3 1450 WIN

UPDATE
Today was a day made by The Lord. Let us rejoice. Today, we unbelievably went 8-0 and we have Green Bay up 21-10 at halftime. We made two adjustments that we saw as opportunities to be aggressive. First, we knew everyone in the pool would be on the Patriots so we essentially doubled up while the early games were going well. We saw it as an opportunity to gain on everyone. Ad it turned out to be exactly that after a crazy game in Seattle as rookie Russell Wilson led a comeback from down two touchdowns. The Seattle defense is tough.

The second opportunity we had was to increase our bet on Green Bay after winning all of the other games. We were second in the weekly standing and decided to go for the weekly prize, which is equal to more than half our investment. We liked Green Bay tonight and don't have any feel for tomorrow's game, so we decided to go for it tonight and bet the max. The biggest consideration was - would we be happy with 27000+ if we lost this bet. We decided that would be ok with that as our total to end the week, so we went max on Green Bay. This is a spot where we knew we should go for it. You have to be mainly conservative and play your system, but it's critical to be able to be risky and aggressive when the moment calls for it. This was our moment. I'm sure there'll be other moments and I hope that we are able to see them and seize the opportunity. If you are only conservative you'll get trampled in the herd and if you're too risky you'll be out, like the leader going into the week who lost 28000 this weekend. Have faith in your system, stick with it even if hope seems lost, and when you feel the moment - strike without mercy and crush your enemies. Become the zen gambling warrior.

Red River Shootout

We like Miami today at home against North Carolina.  UNC has a new coach and Miami getting a touchdown and a hook at home seems like a good edge.

Florida State was everyone's sexy pick for the national championship and NC State upset them last week, a game which we picked correctly.  So here we like FSU to have a letdown game after their national championship hopes were dealt a severe blow.  Boston College only needs to cover 4 TDs.

Central Florida is coming off a bitter loss from last year against Southern Miss and Southern Miss is a new coach on the road, so we like Central Florida.

We're taking Texas in the Red River Rivalry because they got smashed lat year and have probably marked the calendar for revenge this year. Last year was the worst loss since 2003 for Texas.

We're taking Louisiana Tech over Texas A&M because any team that acts like this after a win over Ole Miss is not a team I want to bet on. 

Index
Miami +7.5 1450 WIN
BC +28.5 1450
Central Florida -17 1450
Texas +3 1450 LOSS
Louisiana Tech +9 1450

Pittsburgh at Tennessee

We are in 14th with 24151 to begin week 6.  The leader has 49100 and 19 people have 20000 or more.  12 are out.

We like Tennessee tonight because their defense has been really bad.  They've given up over 30 points every game.  Tonight they're playing at home and they're getting points, so we like that combination.

We also like Troy vs Western Kentucky. WKU has covered 14 games in a row. They ran wild on Troy last year, gaining 338 rushing yards, so we think it's a revenge game for Troy on Thursday night.

We're we're also adding Colorado. This came up late, but as we discussed, if there was ever a spot to take a bad team it's Thursday night. Arizona State has Oregon next week so it's probably going to be tough to focus on lowly Colordo, and hopefully will be a lookahead game where Colorado can sneak one out on Thursday night. There are few games Thursday nights so they tend to play better.

Index
Tennessee +6 1450 WIN
Troy +1.5 1450 LOSS
Colorado +22 1450 LOSS

Disaster and the Jets Jets Jets

We had an absolutely terrible NFL Sunday.  We went 1-5 and lost over 6000.  Nothing went our way.  This is the exact reason we've been wagering the amounts we chose weeks ago - to prepare for the worst case scenario. Sunday was the worst case scenario.  We lost back nearly all that we had gained, but the most important thing is that we are alive and still have a chance.  We also still have more than we started, with 22151 right now.  If we had been betting larger we could have been wiped out.  We fell to 15th, and considering how brutal the day was I reckon things could be much worse.  Mr. Pig and I talked today and discussed next week's action; we didn't dwell on yesterday because we had to move on since there's extra work to do now.

The Saints win last night salvaged the day somewhat and brought us to 2-6 for the day.  Tonight we love the Jets.  LOVE the Jets.  They're at home getting 9 points against an unbeaten Houston team.  The Jets have been getting slammed in the media all week and Houston is everyone's darling.  Houston has had 2 high-scoring wins in a row, have won 4 in a row overall, played very well last week, and the Jets played very poorly last week - getting shutout at home by the 49ers, so the Jets are the obvious pick to contrarian bettors such as ourselves.  If we win this big bet we will have only lost about 3000ish for the week and that's not really bad at all.  If we lose we'll basically be back at the starting amount.  

Index

Jets +9 2200 WIN

Just as I predicted before the weekend - we have a new leader. It's not us though. Yet. 

Streaks Don't Last

NFL - not for long. Nothing lasts for long in the NFL. We like betting against streaks. We're picking Miami and Washington because their opponents are on 3 game win streaks. We're picking New Orleans and Cleveland because their on 4 game losing streaks. We won last week with point spread betting for them also.

We like teams that played poorly vs teams that played well in the previous week, so we like Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Buffalo.

Index
Miami +3.5 1350 WIN
Washington +3 1350 LOSS
New Orleans -3.5 1350 WIN
Cleveland +9 1350 LOSS
Tennessee. +6 1350 LOSS
Jacksonville +6.5 1600 LOSS
Buffalo +10 1950 LOSS

Sunflower Showdown

Starting tonight we have a decent list of college games on our board this week. Tonight we like Syracuse against Pitt because Pitt is only playing their second road game under their new coach. We also like a few other teams for the same reason - Oregon State, Stanford, Auburn, Wisconsin, UL-Lafayette.

We've also added several other games. We added Iowa State because the Texas Christian University quarterback got arrested for DWI Wednesday night. Team chemistry is very important in college football because the players are kids and when a teammate gets in trouble they feel it and the chemistry is disrupted and everyone feels the shame. Not a good way to physically or mentally prepare for a football game. We - actually I shouldn't say we because I haven't told Mr. Pig about this one yet but I'm sure he'll agree and the story literally just broke so I snagged it before the line went too far away from us - I took Maryland because 6 Wake Forest players just got suspended for tomorrow's game.

We also like Oklahoma because Texas Tech snapped their significant home winning streak last year as a big underdog. Oklahoma had the nation's longest hoHme winning streak of 39 games when TT stunned them last year.

We are picking against one of the hottest teams by taking NC State this weekend, but sexy Florida State shutout NC State last year, and it was the first time since 2008 that they had been shutout, so we think the Wolfpack will be out for revenge. FSU has been pulverizing teams so its a dangerous pick, but a lot of times the pick that feels wrong is right.

The leader lost a 5500 max bet last night on Arizona, so I'm curious how he will hold up this weekend after a bad start. I predict a new leader when the week is finished because I don't believe in his mental toughness. To be even more bold, I predict he'll be out in 3 weeks.

Index
Syracuse -2 1200 LOSS
Oklahoma -5 1200 WIN
NC State +17 1200 WIN
UL-Lafayette OMITTED
Iowa State +9.5 1200 WIN
Wisconsin -14 1200 WIN
Auburn -9 1200 LOSS
Stanford -9 1200 LOSS
Oregon State -15 1200 LOSS
Maryland -7 1200 LOSS

Arizona at St. Louis

On Thursday night we like St. Louis because Arizona is, astonishingly, 4-0 this season. Most of the people in the pool took Arizona, obviously.

Index
St. Louis +1.5 1350

Week 4 NFL Results and 8% Pace

We went 5-2-1 in the NFL this weekend, including Thursday, and that, I reckon, is a very successful week.  We still have the Dallas-Chicago game tonight, but we are laying off because we don't see any value or an edge either way.  We're currently in 8th place with 27706 and the pool claimed one more victim so far this week, so 10 people are out and 14 have above 20000, which means 34 have somewhere between 1-19999.  The leader is being cautious and remains ahead of the pack with 54051.  I'm curious how he'll react when someone gains some ground or he goes cold.  I'm sure that he has enough to place in the top 10 right now, but there's a lot of football left.  We're a quarter of the way through the NFL regular season.

I mentioned increasing our stack by 8% each week near the start of this contest, so let's take a look at how we compare to that pace.  Here's a chart of 8% increases on 20000:

Start - 20000
End Week 1 = 21,600
End Week 2 = 23,328
End Week 3 = 25,194
End Week 4 = 27,209

And that's where we are at, the end of week 4 (because we're not betting tonight).  We have 27,706, so we're right on that pace, a little ahead even.  At the end of week 17, if we stay on that pace we should have 74,000, which I think is good enough to win, but easier said than done, though.  We have a very long way to go, but we have a plan and we're prepared to take a shot at the king.

Update
1 more eliminated(11 total) and we're in 7th.

Public Perception Gone Crazy

People have been slamming Cam Newton and Mike Vick all week, so we love Carolina and Philly today.  Both teams are coming off bad losses and are playing teams that have been pretty hot - Atlanta and NY Giants.  Cam Newton is having to deny that he is seeing a sports psychologist and people in Philadelphia are questioning if Andy Reid should continue to start Mike Vick - the Eagles are 2-1 - what's all the fuss about?  These are the biggest plays we've had all year.

We also like Tennessee against Houston because Houston has won 3 in a row.  We like San Diego to reverse last week's outcome.  We like Denver to beat the Raiders at home because Oakland has a new coach.  And we like Jacksonville because Cincinnati has won two games in a row and scored over 30 in each win.  Trends are quickly reversed in the NFL.

Index

Denver -7 1220 WIN

San Diego +1 1450 WIN

Jacksonville +1 1220 LOSS

Tennessee +12.5 1220 LOSS

Philly -2 1700 PUSH

Carolina -7 1700 WIN
New Orleans +7.5 1220 WIN

Bayou Bucket

Houston and Rice play in the Bayou Bucket Classic this weekend and we were going to take Rice until we discovered that it is at a neutral site.  We like 4 other games this weekend, all new coaches on the road.

Index
Michigan State -2.5 1220 LOSS
California +1 1220 LOSS
Texas A&M -13.5 1220 WIN
Air Force -14.5 1220 WIN

Cleveland-Baltimore

On this week's Thursday night matchup Cleveland has lost 3 in a row and Baltimore is coming off an emotional win over the Patriots and playing their 4th game in 18 days.  We like Cleveland to get up for this game, and we're getting 12 points with Cleveland, so Baltimore could win by two scores and we'd still be ok.

Index
Cleveland +12 1220 WIN

Bloody Sunday

We had a bad day on Saturday going 2-5 in college.  We tweeted each other positive and encouraging messages to keep our spirits up and most importantly to remind each other that it's a marathon and to not resort to drastic measures, like the other degenerates on tilt after a cold streak. It was good to be partnered with Mr. Pig this weekend, for the moral support. Balancing each other out gives us an edge. We've known each other so long that we don't hold back any disagreements, and that is an invaluable advantage when trying to decide what matters and what doesn't.

We stuck to our plan and only bet 3 games Sunday. We went 3-0, winning with the Jets, Raiders, and Jaguars. We decided to lay off Baltimore-New England.  So we basically just lost the Carolina bet.

Sunday was a crazy day in the pool. 6 people were knocked out of the pool on Sunday alone.  It would have been greater but the Patriots covered. We're currently in 9th and we're laying off Momday night football so we might even move up if the favorite and the over don't cover.

14 people now have below 10,000 and only 19 have above 20,000. The leader is sitting at 54,301, but he 13-7, 65%, and he'll cool off.

Even though we lost about 1500 this weekend, I consider it a win because we hit a cold streak and stuck with it, and we weren't damaged.

Update:
Absolutely crazy finish to Monday night football game in Seattle claims two more pool entrants, for a total of 9 eliminated.

College Football & Rivalries

The best thing about college football is the rivalries and the trophies that go along with them.  There's a couple this week.  LSU-Auburn will play in the unofficial Tiger Bowl.  We're going to bet on New Mexico State against their rival New Mexico in the Rio Grande Rivalry.  The first meeting was in 1894.  We like State because New Mexico has a new coach and their on the road.  In fact, that's the reason we like all the games in college this week - we're picking against new coaches on the road.  Here's the rest:

Arizona @ Oregon

Kansas @ Northern Illinois

Massachusetts @ Miami OH

Ole Miss @ Tulane

Southern MIssissippi @ Western Kentucky

UAB @ Ohio State

We're also thinking about betting against Penn State because of, well, you know, all the trouble there.  It must be tough to stay focused on football.  

Index

Oregon -23.5 1300 WIN

New Mexico State -6.5 1300 LOSS

The Ohio State -36.5 1300 LOSS

Tulane +19 1300 LOSS

Western Kentucky -4.5 1300 WIN

Northern Illinois -9 1300 LOSS

Miami OH -25 1300 LOSS

Carolina

We had a total breakdown of the system, showed a complete lack of discipline, and did something we never should have done.  We put a bet in on Carolina five minutes before the game started.  Total degenerate move.  We're getting what we deserve because Carolina is down 20-0 at halftime.  Fortunately we bet small enough that we can handle losses and it is very far from crippling us.  After all, it is just one loss and we could have just as easily won the bet, but the takeaway here is that we betrayed ourselves and did something against the nature of what we believe in.  Hopefully, we learn from this, or else we're just like all the other shitheads who act like animals controlled by their impulses with no discipline or rational thought.

Index
Carolina -3 1300

I'm putting this down as a LOSS already and it's only the start of the 3rd quarter.  Pathetic.

NFL Week 3

We only like 2 games in the NFL this weekend.  We love the Jets against Miami.  Last week, the Jets got pounded by the Steelers and Miami ran all over the Raiders, so this week we expect the opposite outcome.

The only other game we like is Ravens-Patriots.  Baltimore thinks they were robbed of a Superbowl appearance last year by their kicker, who they subsequently cut.  Even though the game would have been tied with a successful kick the Ravens still believe they were robbed by the Patriots, so we think they've marked the calendar for this game to prove who should have been the true AFC representative in the Superbowl.  I don't like the Patriots coming off a home loss to Arizona, who were a 2 touchdown underdogs.

We also decided that we like Jacksonville because they were so terrible last week.

Index
Jacksonville +3 1300
Oakland +4 1300
NY Jets +3 1425

Week 2 Analysis

We are in 6th place with 25795 after week 2.  We gained 3295 this week and grew 15% during week 2.  Our overall record is 20-13-1 for a winning % of 60.6, which is higher than expected.   The leader has 49001.  He is 10-5 overall for 66.7% winners.  Now is the time for us to stick to what we're doing because there are wild fluctuations in the standings.

Weekly Index

-2 people gained over 10000
-4 lost over 10000
-12 lost over 5000
-8 gained over 5000

Overall Index

-2 with over 40000
-5 with over 30000
-22 with 20000 or more
-36 out of 58 entrants have lost shares overall (less than 20000)
-16 have 15000 or less
-5 have 10000 or less
-1 is eliminated...that's a quick $500

As of right now I think we are doing exactly what we want, perhaps a little better.  We will have to endure losing weekends so I'm prepared for that and I wouldn't be surprised if this weekend was bad because over 60% winners is hard to maintain.  The good thing is that our bankroll management strategy allows us to take a hit and survive, unlike some of the cowboys who are max betting.

I was introduced to another entrant at a bar and had a conversation with him.  He was in the pool last year as well.  He thinks this year's winner will have over 100K.  I told him that was absolutely not going to happen and offered him a side bet of $100 that the winner would have less than 100K.  Does he really think someone is going to make 5 times their starting amount of 20000?  I say no, definitely not.  If anyone in this pool was that good they should go straight to Vegas and become a millionaire.  But, if he thinks that, and a few other people think that, then they can go ahead and justify betting out of control and hope to get lucky.  Mr Pig and I will be there in the second half rolling right along while these fools are eliminated.

MNF: Denver-Atlanta

We're sitting this one out because we don't know who's going to win and we don't want to damage our successful week by placing a toss-up bet.  However, the results of the game will almost definitely give us a play for next week.  More on that later in the week.  Week 2 analysis and standings index coming tomorrow.

NFL Week 2

We had a nice day in college yesterday going 6-3.  I think we even missed entering the Georgia game, which would have been a win also.  Not really sure what happened there...need to be more organized apparently.  Today we have a few games we like based on a couple of different scenarios that took place last week and that have been trending this week.

We like Pittsburgh over the Jets.  Pittsburgh didn't play well against Denver last week and the Jets played out of their mind against Buffalo, so we like the Steelers to play a lot better and the Jets to play much worse.  

The Giants lost on opening night to Dallas and this week they're playing Tampa Bay in New Jersey, so we like the Giants against a team that played very well last week and playing their first road game under a new coach this week.  I love the Giants here.

We like Tennessee because San Diego played Oakland, a division rival, on Monday night, and we think that San Diego will have a letdown game and struggle to get up for Tennessee after playing a big game a short week ago.

We love Philly this week.  Baltimore played a division rival on Monday night (Cincinnati) and now they're playing a non-division, non-conference opponent in Philly.  Baltimore is also at the beginning of a stretch of 4 games in 17 days, and that can't be good; playing 25% of a 4 month season in 17 days.  The betting public also loves Baltimore, so we love hilly even more.   

Speaking of the betting public, there has been some big line movement this week and we're considering going the opposite way of the public just because we know amateur bettors are mostly wrong.  Based on the movement of the lines we know people love New Orleans, Dallas, Washington, and San Fran, so that put us on Carolina, Seattle, St. Louis, and Detroit.  

After my morning conversation with Mr. Pig we're going forward with the, to use a cliche, flip the script teams, except for Carolina because they've been talking.  We don't like talk.  We love overreactions and media hype.      

Index - UPDATED

NY Giants -7 1100 PUSH

Pittsburgh -5 1100 WIN

Tennessee +6.5 1100 LOSS

Philadelphia -3 1325 LOSS

Seattle +3 1100 WIN

Detroit +7 1100 LOSS

St. Louis +3.5 1100 WIN

Saturday College Football

We have a good slate of games today and a few uncomfortably large spreads to cover. We got a little trigger happy and bent the rules for the last pick we rushed to put in. We took Wake Forest against this years sexy Championship pick - Florida State. FSU has been picked by several people to win it all this season. The good thing about that for us is that it's obviously adding pressure to the FSU kids and their heads are swelling. Hopefully today they will be looking ahead to Clemson next week, their first true test this season. We like Wake Forest to cover +27.5.

Maryland coach Randy Edsall left UConn 2 years ago Bill Parcells style. After the bowl game he didn't even take the plane home with them, instead he went straight to interview with Maryland. Some UConn players were pissed, and today they can take out their frustrations, so hopefully they will.

We also like several teams who are playing at home against teams with new coaches.  We like SMU +12.5 against Texas A&M, which we locked in early and went down so we have a couple extra points on our side.  We like Louisville against North Carolina.  Missouri lost key player but we like them anyway against a hot Arizona State team.  UCLA should be able to cover against Houston.  Then we have 3 games with big spreads.  Texas Tech and South Carolina have to cover -33 for us, and Michigan has to cover -45 against UMass.  They make me nervous but college scores can get crazy.  If we go 2-1 in the big spread games I'll be good with that.

Index UPDATED
Wake Forest +27.5 880 LOSS
UConn -2.5 1100 WIN
SMU +12.5 1100 LOSS
Louisvile -3 1100 WIN
Missouri -6.5 1100 LOSS
UCLA -17 1100 WIN
Texas Tech -32.5 1100 WIN
South Carolina -33 1100 WIN
Michigan -45 1100 WIN

Washington State at UNLV

We've got a little action on Friday night because Washington State has a new coach and they're on the road.  Mike Leach is the new coach, he was dismissed controversially from Texas Tech.  We locked in our bet early in the week and were rewarded because the spread moved away from us, so we have a couple of extra points.

Index
UNLV +10.5 1100

Update
Fortunately we locked in +10.5 early in the week because Washington State won by 8. Had we put the bet in on the day of the game we would have only got +8 and pushed. WIN

Update 2
14 people put bets in on Washington State or UNLV yesterday, they all pushed.

Thursday Night Football

We've got two games tonight, one college and one pro.  Early in the week we locked in Green Bay at -6 because we thought people would realized that Green Bay went 15-1 last year and after getting whooped by the 49ers at home last week that they would be looking to refocus and get serious about 2012.  We didn't want to have to cover a whole touchdown so we grabbed -6 while it was there.  Even though we like Green Bay the public likes Chicago, who is way too over-confident.  It's the oldest rivalry in professional football.  These two teams hate each other.  People are loving the swagger of the Bears.  Jay Cutler is saying "good luck" to the Packers secondary and Brandon Marshall is going on about how he's bigger and tougher than the Packers secondary.  They're giving Green Bay plenty of bulletin board material.  People have ignored this or failed to realize it because they are way too high on Chicago so the line moved favorable to us, but we'd already locked in Green Bay, so unfortunately we have to cover an extra point and a half.

In college tonight we like South Florida who is playing Rutgers.  This will be the first road game for the new Rutgers head coach.  Former coach Greg Schiano left for Tampa Bay in the NFL and took most of his assistants with him, so hopefully tonight is a disaster.  They actually won their first road game 2 weeks ago, but failed to cover the spread, in fact, they've won both games they've played but failed to cover in each.  That doesn't make me feel good because at some point they're going to play as well or better than expected.  South Florida is significantly better, especially offensively, than Tulane and Howard, Rutgers only two opponents this year, and they're playing at home.  Last year, SF was up on Rutgers 17-3 before Rutgers won in overtime 20-17, so South Florida should be focused and prepared to keep their heads in the game.

Index
Green Bay -6 1100
South Florida -7.5 1100

Update
-South Florida really blew it tonight.  Couldn't capitalize on a ton of Rutgers penalties and turned the ball over in red zone.  Poor.  Rutgers came up with a couple of circus catch intercepions, so that didn't help.  LOSS
-Green Bay isn't quite the same as they were last year.  Aaron Rodgers seems to be focusing on the officiating too much.  Fortunately, the Chicago offense was putrid.  Jay Cutler wishing good luck to the Green Bay secondary has really really been paying off, truly it has, Cutler has thrown 3 interceptions.

Update 2
Make that 4 interceptions for Cutler.  GB is kneeling on it.  WIN

Fantasy Football Interlude

I'm in several fantasy football leagues and before the betting for this week gets underway I have to share this gem of an exchange I had earlier today.

For the draft in this league several guys got together at Mr. Pig's house.  I knew all the guys there except for one.  This league starts one tight end and no flex.  I drafted in the 10th spot, out of 12, and before I made my 5th round pick I checked spots 11 and 12 to see if they had QBs or TEs.  They had Jimmy Graham and Gronkowski, and the 12 spot had Cam Newton.  The two guys I wanted were Matt  Ryan and Aaron Hernandez.  No-brainer right?  Take Ryan and Hernandez will be there on the comeback.  So I take Matt Ryan.  Pick 11 conceded that he would have most definitely taken him, so I thought I was about to win the league right there with a stud TE.  Then 12 spot picks Hernandez!  And he already has the #1 TE - Gronk.  There is no way for him to play these two guys together, ever.

So, today, I offer Percy Harvin for Aaron Hernandez.  He doesn't decline or officially counter-offer, but instead sends me a message that says "I'll trade Hernandez for MJD."  Since he didn't counter, and thus decline, my offer and it's still sitting there, I know he's considering my Harvin offer.  I'm going to do a little bullying and threaten to pull my offer to try and force him into action.  My response is here:

Subject: Clown Trade, Bro

Are you insane dude?  Your backup tight end for my #1 running back.  You are being unreasonable and I no longer have interest in Hernandez if you are going to bring that bush league b.s. to the bargaining table.  If you let Hernandez sit on your bench you are not maximizing the potential of your team and hurting only yourself.  I offered you a nice WR1 who has great upside.  If you don't like Percy Harvin then we're not doing business.  I could have low-balled you and offered you some garbage trade but I had enough respect for you to make a serious offer.  You know I want Hernandez but I'm not so attached to obtaining him that I'm going to hurt my team.  If you get a better offer take it because Harvin is as far as I'll go, and I think Harvin is more than you'll get anywhere else because the trade today involving Bradshaw and Lafell is like the first trade, maybe ever, in this league.  Accept my offer within the two days it's available or feel free to decline it, but you should know that it's the only one I'm offering and this conversation is over.    

Update - next day
He doesn't reply but instead offers me a trade with Hernandez for MJD and the message says "I think it's a fair trade Hernandez will be top 2 or 3 TE."  MJD led the league in rushing last year and he's offering me his backup TE.  He is obviously a fucking moron.  I won't in any way be responding to him.  He still hasn't officially declined Hernandez for Harvin.

Week 1 Analysis

At the start of week 2 we find ourselves tied for 9th out of 58.  We went 9-6 in week 1, 60% winners.  We have increased our shares to 22,500, or a 12.5% increase.  I think this was a very good week.  Mr. Pig didn't seem quite as happy because he said he hates looking at the standings and seeing people significantly ahead of us.  I told him the solution to that was - don't look at the standings.  If we stay disciplined and stick with our strategy then I'm confident we will win, or at least finish in the money.  Picking winners is only part of successful gambling.  Bankroll management is hugely important to consistent success.  Let's take a look at the rest of the standings and I'll point out a few things I expect to happen.

The person in first place has 35,300.  He lost his first two bets for 1100, 1100, then won 5 in a row at 3000, 5000, 2000, 2500, 5000, in that order.  Just as I predicted before the weekend started - the winner of this week would make big bets and get hot.  Exactly what happened.  Compare this to the person in last place, who has only 2292 remaining.  In order his bets were:

1100

1100

220

3300

3300

5500

5500

2180

5500

5500

4081

5500

Both betting patterns are that of degenerate gamblers.  Why?  Because bet sizes increased way too quickly.  A major sign of gambling addiction is the need to increase the size of your bets.  These two guys could easily have had opposite luck and be in the opposite place in the standings.  One won the weekly prize and the other is essential eliminated with almost no chance to comeback.  These wild swings are because of the bet size.  I predict that this guy in last will be eliminated next week and the guy in first probably by halfway through the season.  Both of them have demonstrated their lack of ability to manage a bankroll, and are subject to uncontrollable urges to bet more.  Neither has any chance of winning.  However, the guy in first already made back $300, so one more lucky week and he'll probably swing for the fences, which could be dangerous because if he gets hot again he could build up a lead and sit on it.  But I doubt that will happen.  

We decided that we like using somewhere between 3-5% for our bet size depending on the edge we believe we have, so our bet size will increase because our bankroll has increased, but by a reasonable, calculated amount, but at the same time our bet size is staying the same percentage-wise.  If you were to bet say 500 for every bet for the whole season and hit 55% or so winners - I don't think you'd make enough to win the pool.  You'd grind out a profit, but I'm not sure that it would be enough.    

Index

1. 35300

2. 34500

3. 30505

9. Us - 22500

20. 20500

30. 19922

40. 17800

50. 14980

58. 2292

       

Monday Night Football and a Special Delivery

There's two games tonight - Cincinnati-Baltimore and Oakland- San Diego.  Mr. Pig and I have been debating taking Oakland because in Week 17 last year San Diego beat Oakland and knocked them out of the playoffs.  We think Oakland might have marked the calendar on this one, but we're not feeling the revenge vibes.  Public money has shifted the line from Oakland +1 to Oakland -1, and we really hate betting with the public, so we've decided to wait and see.  If money comes in on San Diego then maybe we have a play.  Our first weekend has been successful, so we have no problem sitting this one out.

Jammed in the mailbox today was a package that I had been eagerly awaiting.  In the movie Training Day, as Denzel Washington's character Alonzo is preparing to use force to impose his will he stands collecting his gear and the following conversation takes place:

Alonzo: Gimme the bitch.

Jake: (hands Alonzo a shotgun) 

Alonzo uses this weapon when he is about to get into serious shit.  Today, when I peered into the mailbox I felt like Alonzo because I could see there was a large package containing the bitch.  

The Bitch

Update:

We opted to stay away from Oakland, and they ended up losing.  Good fortune.

Pittsburgh-Denver

The highlight of this game is the return of Peyton Manning after sitting out all of last year with neck problems.  All the pressure is on Denver and been relatively under the radar.  The last game Pittsburgh played was in the playoffs last year when they were eliminated on the first play of overtime on an 80-yard Tim tebow TD pass.  This play must have been shown a million times on ESPN and we believe that Pittsburgh has marked the calendar to even the score.  The Pittsburgh players have been saying all the right things to the media, but it has to be in their mind.  They're returning to the place where last season came to an end, quickly and brutally on a throw from Tebow and a stiff arm from Demarius Thomas.

Index
Pittsburgh +2 880

Update:
This is a grinder.  The Steelers are up 10-7 at the half.  This would be a nice win to cap off the day at 4-1, but there's plenty of football left tonight.

Update 2:
Having made plays all night Roethlisberger just threw a pick 6 with 2 minutes left.  That's all she wrote.  Gonna be a LOSS.  Will end up 3-2 today, which is 60%, fine by me.

The First NFL Sunday

The NFL is currently the most popular and successful professional sports league.  As far as gambling, it is a different animal altogether than college football.  The players are grown men and professionals.  Even if there is suspect leadership, players can usually be expected to play for themselves because they need to get paid.  The difference between the best NFL team and the worst is far, far smaller than in college.  Yesterday we saw the biggest spread in college football history with Florida State favored by 70.5 over Savannah State.  Savannah State had absolutely zero chance to win that game.  It was cancelled due to weather in the 3rd Q when the score was 55-0.  In the NFL, any teams can win.  The biggest spread today in the NFL is Miami +13, and they could win.

We're currently in 6th place in the pool, so it would be nice to have a good day in the NFL, but I'm pleased to be up and not down.  One guy is down over 50% at 8,650.  That's a tough hole to dig out of.  For today, we like 5 games and 1 Monday night.  

Indianapolis has a new coach and new QB and they're on the road, so we like Chicago despite a double-digit spread.  Indianapolis has changed a lot both offensively and defensively, and they are also under pressure to get off to a good start with the new coach and the #1 draft pick, new QB Andrew Luck.  Some people see this line and like the Colts, but we think the smart money is on the Bears.

We're debating whether or not to take Tampa Bay over Carolina.  The reason I think we have an edge is because no single player did more to embarrass Tampa Bay's defense last year than Cam Newton and Carolina beat Tampa twice last year in December by hefty margins.  So, we're thinking Tampa has marked the calendar.  

Jacksonville has a new coach, they're on the road, and the best running back in the league held out for more money all summer and show up last weekend, so we like Minnesota at home.

Miami has a new coach and a rookie QB.  Their struggles were also documented on the Hard Knocks tv show, which I think also added pressure on the team.  Despite the big spread we like Houston at home.

Index

Chicago - 10 1100

Tampa Bay +2.5 880

Minnesota -3.5 880

Houston -13 1100

Update:
-Somehow I managed to miss putting in the Minnesota bet.  Probably going to turn out favorable though. NOT A LOSS
-Houston - WIN
-Chicago is up and looking good.
Tampa kicks off at 4:25. WIN

     

Texas & Arizona State

For late evening games we like Texas to cover a big spread, which makes me nervous give that we've lost the last 3 with big spreads, but you got to forget that and shake it off.  Texas is playing New Mexico and they stink.  They have a new coach who was commentating for ESPN for the last 10 years and they're on the road.  We also like Arizona State over Illinois because once again we've got a new coach on the road.  

Index
Texas -38 880
Arizona State -3.5 1100

Update:
-Texas smashed New Mexico 45-0, so that was a nice win.
-Arizona State has jumped out to a nice lead 28-7 over Illinois, so hopefully we can finish the first full day of college football with a couple of wins.

FIU, Oregon, & Arkansas State

I am loving it right now.  Just got cable back after giving it up for the summer, so I can watch as much football as I want.  This evening we like Florida International because they're playing at home against Akron, who has a new coach and QB.

Last week, Oregon jumped way ahead of Arkansas St., but the final score was 57-34, so even though the score was 50-10 at halftime if you only saw the final score you might have wondered why Oregon only won by 23 against a much weaker team.  I think Oregon might be looking to make a statement this week, and we like that Fresno State has a new coach.  I especially like that the new coach is changing the defense to a 3-4 and offense significantly from pro-style to a spread.  Gameplan are complicated and college players are kids, and some of these players were recruited to play a different type scheme, so hopefully Oregon completely blows them out because the spread is pretty big.  

I mentioned Arkansas State played Oregon last week, but they're playing Memphis this week.  Memphis has one of, and possibly, the worst teams in Division 1A.  They also have a new coach who is changing the offense, a transfer QB, and they're playing on the road against a team that got smashed by Oregon last week.  We like an angry Arkansas St. team who is probably looking to bet someone up.  

Index

FIU -23.5 880

Oregon -35 880

Arkansas State -23 880

Results:
FIU - Loss
Oregon - Loss
Arkansas State - Loss
Tough run in the late evening.

UNC-Wake and Betting Lines

North Carolina's last permanent coach, Butch Davis, was fired after months of NCAA investigations for improper benefits and suspicions of shady academics that somehow involved tutors and lying.  When Davis was fired he said, "I can honestly say I leave with the full confidence that I have done nothing wrong."  UNC is on the road against Wake Forest.  The line opened at UNC -6, and has moved to -10.5, which means enough money has come on UNC to move the line.  Betting lines are set by sportsbook and the goal of setting a line is to split the bettors 50/50.  The goal is not to try and figure out what the final score will be, a common misconception, because how is anyone possibly going to figure that out.  The goal is to split the money coming in on bets and the sportsbooks will be assured of a profit by collecting 10% vigorish, or vig, or juice.  For example, we're betting 880 to win 800 on Wake, if we win we get only 800 and if we lose we lose 880, either way, 10% is forfeited.  The line move on UNC is great because we like Wake, and we love going against the public.

Index
Wake +10.5 880
    
Result
Wake - Win

Penn State

Everyone knows what happened at Penn State this off-season.  Penn State has a new head coach since Joe Paterno is now disgraced and dead.  Perhaps it is the understatement of the year to say that Penn State's leadership is unsteady right now.  New coach, new system, players transferring, and a road game against Virginia provides an excellent betting opportunity.  This is our biggest bet of the day.

Tulane is playing a road game against Tulsa.  The new Tulane coach is come from the Saints in the NFL, who also had a scandal plagued off-season, but that is irrelevant here, except for the new coach.  We're taking Tulsa and have a lot of points to cover.  

Update:

-PSU is up 7 and they look like they came to ply today.  Could be trouble.  I thought Virginia had some momentum after banging the PSU QB, but they just threw an interception giving PSU great field position.  

-Tulsa just scored to make it 28-3.

2nd Update:
PSU just missed their second field goal, keeping us in it.

3rd Update:
Scary moment in Tulsa game as Tulane player needed CPR on the field and was carried off in an ambulance.  It makes me feel physically uneasy just thinking about it.  Hope he's ok.  Life is fragile and can be taken in an instant at any moment.  

Index

Virginia -10 1100

Tulsa -25.5 880

Results:
-Penn State played well despite losing the lead late, but should have won outright.  They missed at least three fields goals, one extra point, and dropped a TD pass.
-Tulsa won easily 45-10, so we're 1-1 going into the evening.    

Opening Weekend

We're heading into the opening weekend sitting in first place, and there's about 50 entries so we're feeling good.  We have 9 college football games we like on Saturday, and we're planning to bet them all.  There's a weekly prize of about $150-$200 for whoever earns the most shares in a given week.  We're ahead now, but there's only been two games so the weekly prize hasn't factored into our plans, at all.  Of course, it would be nice, but we're not deviating from our long term goal for a short term reward.  Since everyone is still alive and kicking for this weekend I'm expecting some wild betting.  I predict that there will be some max bettors and someone will get lucky and hit a few and snatch the weekly payout.  I also predict that a couple of people will blow their load this weekend.  Anyone that risks the max amount this early is just plain stupid.  The max amount allows for just about 4 bets right now.  In gambling there's always hot and cold streaks.  A gambler must be able to survive the worst case scenario.  Losing 4 bets is somewhat likely, so bankroll management is critical.  I think we need to have a safety net of about 10 losses, at least.  I don't expect to lose 10 in a row exactly, but I do expect to get cold, so we have to be able to take that hit and still be a viable contender.  One guy bet the max on the Cowboys-Giants over, and lost, of course, so now he's down over 25% of his stack.  Foolish.        

Pitt-Cincy

The Pittsburgh-Cincinnati college game tonight was an opportunity that Mr. Pig and I had been talking about for several days.  Pitt is a total disaster.  They've had six coaches in a little over a year.  One of the biggest differences between college and the NFL is that the players are kids.  The head coach is incredibly important for providing leadership and stability.  Pitt has none of these things.  This is the first road game and we're hoping it's a disaster.  Money came in on Cincy and moved the line up, but we got it before it peaked fortunately.

INDEX

Cincy -4.5 1100

Update:
Cincy rushed for a 58 yard TD less than a minute and a half into the game.  Good start, but there's a lot of football left.

    
2nd Update:
Cincy is up 34-10 with 34 seconds left. 

NFL Kickoff

The betting lines finally appeared on the morning of September 5th.  Tonight's game between Dallas-NYG is the first game on which we can wager.  You can't wager on every game because you'll go broke fast.  We have discussed many opportunities over the past week, mostly college games, and nothing really stood out in tonight's NFL opening game.  I had some time this afternoon to scout Dallas/NYG and I uncovered some interesting information that was overlooked.  Last year, NYG beat Dallas twice in the the last four weeks.  In week 14 NYG won in Dallas and in week 17 they won again, which ended the season for Dallas.  Dallas has to be bitter and that had to have stung throughout the off-season.  At some point, if I was a Cowboy, I know I would have marked the calendar for September 5th. 

Some people must be thinking the NYG will win, so what are they thinking?  Well, NYG won the Superbowl and they're opening the season in front of their home crowd, so people in New York will surely go bananas as their champions are crowned.  The NYG spent time in the off-season celebrating and congratulating themselves while the Cowboys slept restlessly and woke up every morning with a bitter taste in their mouths.  Dallas was motivated to win this game, or at least cover by 3.5.  

The next thing we have to decide is how much to wager on Dallas, which is complicated by a number of factors.  We are rookies in this contest, so we don't know the people or their wagering tendencies.  After this weekend we think we'll have some idea of what we're dealing with.  We suspect that there'll be lunatics making crazy bets, conservatives making small bets, and probably people like we intend to be - disciplined and balancing risk with reward.  For the opening week we're leaning more conservative to get a feel for everything, and we plan to adjust our strategy after seeing what other people are doing. Ideally, our system will allow us to rise to the top over the course of the season.  We feel that the last few weeks of the NFL season and the college bowl season are our prime time, so hopefully we'll be in contention late.  There's going to be ups and downs, hot streaks and cold streaks, and it's very important to have minimized risk enough to avoid getting wiped out, but also risked enough to get near the top.  

We settled on a loose 3 star wagering system.  If there is a factor that we believe gives us an edge we want to take that risk, and that's a 1 star play.  Two factors for 2 stars and 3 for 3.  If we feel there's information on both sides we don't play.  Ultimately, it's a game of acquiring information and using it successfully.  Does it matter that the star running back broke a beer bottle over someone's head at a frat party and got suspended?  

The core of our philosophy is finding the team that is motivated to win.  Does it matter if Pittsburgh has the number 1 ranked rushing defense?  No, those are just numbers that have been affected by many other factors.  Stats don't matter, mostly.  If Pittsburgh is playing Houston, the number 1 rushing offense, you could see advantages for both sides.  Pittsburgh will be able to shut down their run game.  Conversely, Houston's run game is so good they'll still be able to run the ball.  The information that we need should provide insight into the mindset of the team.

Before we get to deep into our core philosophy let's remember that successful gamblers need only to win 55% of the time, approximately.  You will lose with any strategy, and lose often.  The gambler that has made the most bets has also lost the most bets.  Anyone that says they win 80% of the time is a liar and a fool.  

We decided to risk 1100, or 5.5% of our 20,000 shares, on Dallas tonight.

Index

Dallas +3.5 1100

Result - Win